Fantasy Sleepers And Value Picks – Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Kobalt 400)

In 13 starts at LVMS, Kasey Kahne has three
Top-5's and seven Top-10's. 

Sleepers:

Kasey Kahne: Through two races this season, Kasey Kahne looks like a top #FantasyNASCAR pick. With finishes of seventh at Daytona and fourth at Atlanta after starting 26th or higher both races, consider starting Kahne until proved otherwise. He ranks third in fantasy points averaged per race. Another appealing consideration about picking Kahne? In 13 starts at Las Vegas, Kahne posted three top fives and seven top 10s. He’s won three Coors Light Poles and has finished outside the top-20 only twice and both were due to accidents.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan Blaney has the characteristics of a driv er who could be on the verge of breaking out. He finished second at Daytona and scored a top 20 at Atlanta. He has a stout average place differential of +15.0. He ranks fifth in fantasy points averaged per race and his sleeper status has everything to do with him being able to get to the front after starting in the back. In two Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Las Vegas, Blaney has finishes of sixth (2016) and 19th (2015). He had place differentials of +8.0 or better in both.

Erik Jones: Those who watched the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 at Atlanta should like what they saw out of Erik Jones. There is still risk with Jones as he has a boom or bust appeal to him but at Atlanta, Jones started 23rd and finished 14th, though was battling a top 10 spot most of the race. At Jones’ current salary, he could be worth a solid gamble as a middle starter. Jones offers high upside in positive place differential – especially if he qualifies 23rd or higher like he has in his first two 2017 starts.

Austin Dillon: After two races, Austin Dillon has been a letdown in almost every #FantasyNASCAR category. One phrase to keep in mind? #TrustTheProcess. AD could get into a high groove this weekend at Las Vegas. Since 2005, Dillon sits 12th among active drivers in driver rating at Vegas and has run 43.9% of his laps in the top 15 there. In four starts at Las Vegas, Dillon has four top 25s, including a fifth-place finish in 2016. He’s led two laps at Vegas and owns an average finish of 15.2.

Value Plays:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: A solid value play to consider at Las Vegas is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He crashed at Daytona and finished 13th at Atlanta. Last season at Vegas, Stenhouse scored his best finish there in four career starts after placing 12th. It gets better as he’s run 41.1% of his laps in the top 15 and owns an average mid-race running position of 19.5. Stenhouse Jr. runs in the top 25 here. Depending on where he qualifies, he’ll make his way up to the front. His price for potential production is there.

Ty Dillon: Ty Dillon became the top fantasy value play we expected him to be last week at Atlanta. He started the race 26th and finished 15th. His +11 place differential is something we can expect from him going forward as he has a knack for getting up front after starting in the rear. He currently sits 24th in fantasy points averaged per race and his price remains quite good for someone of his caliber. He’s never raced at LVMS in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, however, has four finishes of 11th or better in the XFINITY Series at Vegas.

Michael McDowell: Shhh. People might begin to notice, but Michael McDowell has been a consistent value play over his two 2017 starts. He’s had positive place differential in both races of +7.0 and owns an average finish of 22.0. McDowell currently sits 20th in fantasy points averaged per race and for his price, he is a good risk/reward #FantasyNASCAR pick. In his last two starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, McDowell has two top 30s and has averaged positive place differential in both.

David Ragan: If you picked David Ragan at Atlanta last week, you were in for a tremendous value pick. He started the race 34th and finished 23rd. For his current price across most leagues, Ragan should be considered a strong value play for his positive plac e differential opportunity each week. Through two races, Ragan owns an average finish of 24.0 and a place differential of +3.0. In 10 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Ragan owns a place differential of +3.3.