via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver.
Road course races are run only twice per year and none are in the Chase, but they nevertheless can have a huge impact on the championship. Since 2008, winners of these races have included Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, AJ Allmendinger, Carl Edwards, Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Kasey Kahne—more or less in order of their most recent win on this course type.
One sees many drivers who are expected to be part of the Chase included in that list, but there are several who are not necessarily expected to be road course winners. Kahne, Bowyer, Truex, and Edwards are not commonly known to be road course ringers but each of them won in the past nine years. Then there are drivers like Allmendinger and Stewart who would not have been part of the playoffs without winning there.
The impact of road courses goes well beyond two wild card drivers in two playoffs. Both twisty track races are held in the summer. Watkins Glen International is as late as August, which means that drivers on the cusp or outside of playoff contention are hyper-focused on these races—along with the restrictor-plate, superspeedway events. Uncertainty is not a fantasy player’s friend.
For the most part, road courses are predictable affairs. Last year, five drivers swept the top 10 in both events. Three of them swept the top five, including both winners Hamlin and Stewart along with Logano. Four others swept the top 15—with an honorable mention going to the tandem of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon who scored top-15s in the No. 88. Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray barely missed sweeping the top 15.
Fantasy owners can look to last year Cheez-it 355 at the Glen and make some fairly good projections about who will contend for top-10s—Hamlin, Logano, Truex, and the Ky Busch will constantly contend—but they will also want to be a little conservative. There is a reason these races are considered wild cards. Strategy plays a key role in success. Teams count back from the end of the race and try to make their final pit stop as early as possible. If they misjudge or are unlucky enough to catch an ill-timed caution, it is easy to go from the top five to the back of the pack. Passing is difficult on both courses.
There is also a difference between the two tracks. That does not impact traditional stock car drivers as much as ones who spent their formative years in the twisty track disciplines. Sonoma Raceway is much more technical than the Glen. The New York track is a high speed course that allows drivers to charge the corners harder, so Allmendinger has typically been better there while Michael McDowell is better in California on average.
Road ringers have not been particularly productive in recent seasons. Chemistry in NASCAR is so important that it is difficult for teams to resonate with their driver in a single weekend. In fantasy games where they can be signed for a bargain basement price, however, they can extend one’s salary cap.
Likewise, rookies and sophomores are not usually a good value. Road course racing as a discipline takes years to learn and even with several courses in the Xfinity Series, the level of competition in Cup is markedly different.
One sees many drivers who are expected to be part of the Chase included in that list, but there are several who are not necessarily expected to be road course winners. Kahne, Bowyer, Truex, and Edwards are not commonly known to be road course ringers but each of them won in the past nine years. Then there are drivers like Allmendinger and Stewart who would not have been part of the playoffs without winning there.
The impact of road courses goes well beyond two wild card drivers in two playoffs. Both twisty track races are held in the summer. Watkins Glen International is as late as August, which means that drivers on the cusp or outside of playoff contention are hyper-focused on these races—along with the restrictor-plate, superspeedway events. Uncertainty is not a fantasy player’s friend.
For the most part, road courses are predictable affairs. Last year, five drivers swept the top 10 in both events. Three of them swept the top five, including both winners Hamlin and Stewart along with Logano. Four others swept the top 15—with an honorable mention going to the tandem of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon who scored top-15s in the No. 88. Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray barely missed sweeping the top 15.
Fantasy owners can look to last year Cheez-it 355 at the Glen and make some fairly good projections about who will contend for top-10s—Hamlin, Logano, Truex, and the Ky Busch will constantly contend—but they will also want to be a little conservative. There is a reason these races are considered wild cards. Strategy plays a key role in success. Teams count back from the end of the race and try to make their final pit stop as early as possible. If they misjudge or are unlucky enough to catch an ill-timed caution, it is easy to go from the top five to the back of the pack. Passing is difficult on both courses.
There is also a difference between the two tracks. That does not impact traditional stock car drivers as much as ones who spent their formative years in the twisty track disciplines. Sonoma Raceway is much more technical than the Glen. The New York track is a high speed course that allows drivers to charge the corners harder, so Allmendinger has typically been better there while Michael McDowell is better in California on average.
Road ringers have not been particularly productive in recent seasons. Chemistry in NASCAR is so important that it is difficult for teams to resonate with their driver in a single weekend. In fantasy games where they can be signed for a bargain basement price, however, they can extend one’s salary cap.
Likewise, rookies and sophomores are not usually a good value. Road course racing as a discipline takes years to learn and even with several courses in the Xfinity Series, the level of competition in Cup is markedly different.
Rank
|
Driver
|
Avg. Finish
|
2016 Glen
|
2016 Sonoma
|
1.
|
1.50
|
1
|
2
| |
2.
|
2.50
|
2
|
3
| |
3.
|
3.00
|
5
|
1
| |
4.
|
6.00
|
7
|
5
| |
5.
|
6.50
|
6
|
7
| |
6.
|
9.00
|
4
|
14
| |
7.
|
9.00
|
3
|
15
| |
8.
|
9.50
|
15
|
4
| |
9.
|
10.50
|
11
|
10
| |
10.
|
11.00
|
11
| ||
11.
|
12.00
|
16
|
8
| |
12.
|
12.50
|
8
|
17
| |
13.
|
14.00
|
14
| ||
14.
|
14.50
|
20
|
9
| |
15.
|
15.00
|
10
|
20
| |
16.
|
17.00
|
13
|
21
| |
17.
|
17.00
|
9
|
25
| |
18.
|
18.00
|
12
|
24
| |
19.
|
19.00
|
32
|
6
| |
20.
|
19.00
|
22
|
16
| |
21.
|
20.00
|
21
|
19
| |
22.
|
20.50
|
29
|
12
| |
23.
|
21.00
|
19
|
23
| |
24.
|
24.00
|
24
| ||
25.
|
26.00
|
23
|
29
| |
26.
|
26.50
|
40
|
13
| |
27.
|
26.50
|
31
|
22
| |
28.
|
27.00
|
27
|
27
| |
29.
|
28.00
|
17
|
39
| |
30.
|
28.50
|
39
|
18
| |
31.
|
29.00
|
18
|
40
| |
32.
|
29.00
|
25
|
33
| |
33.
|
30.00
|
30
|
30
| |
34.
|
31.00
|
28
|
34
| |
35.
|
31.50
|
35
|
28
| |
36.
|
32.00
|
38
|
26
| |
37.
|
32.00
|
26
|
38
| |
38.
|
32.50
|
33
|
32
| |
39.
|
32.50
|
34
|
31
| |
40.
|
36.00
|
36
| ||
41.
|
36.50
|
37
|
36
|
No comments:
Post a Comment