via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver
Denny Hamlin beat Martin Truex Jr.
to the line for the Daytona 500 by .001 seconds—the closest margin of
victory since the advent of timing and scoring. While restrictor-plate,
superspeedways are not usually predictive of much else during the
season, this time the finish foretold the strength of Joe Gibbs Racing
and anyone associated with them.
He does not draw a paycheck from JGR, but Truex and the Front Row Motorsports are associates with the larger organization. In 2016, the partnership finally began to produce results and that was due in no small part to the largesse of success that spilled over from Gibbs.
Even with his high degree of success, however, Hamlin was not a consistently good value at the start of the season. Perhaps because he had nothing to lose with a win under his belt, Hamlin and team fell down the order quickly with sub-15th-place results in four of the next seven races. In the first half of the season, he earned only seven top-10s in 18 events and while three of these were second- or third-place results, he managed to back up one top 10 with another on only two occasions.
It will come as no surprise that he began to turn his season around on a short, flat track. Just past the midway point, Hamlin finished ninth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That was followed by a fourth at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the Brickyard 400 and a seventh at Pocono Raceway. This streak of flat track top-10s established a nine-race streak of results ninth or better and made him one of the favorites to win the championship.
Hamlin was undoubtedly ecstatic to advance to the third round of the Chase. With short, flat track races at Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix International Raceway he expected to advance on a win. Texas Motor Speedway was the third venue, and that is also one of his best tracks in terms of career average finishes. Hamlin swept the top 10, but scored only one top-five in those three events and that was the difference maker. He was not part of the Championship Four, but flat tracks will continue to play a critical role in 2017’s Chase—and they will be critical to his attractiveness as a fantasy asset.
Eight of Hamlin’s 22 top-10s came on minimally-banked courses.
Hamlin was also one to the top contenders on road courses in 2016. He came within a few hundred yards of sweeping Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International, but made the mistake of letting Tony Stewart get a little too close to his bumper in the hairpin. The retiring veteran knocked Hamlin into the wall, but he held onto to finish second. Hamlin won the Cheez-it 355 at the Glen.
Predictability will be critical in 2017. If Hamlin scores top-10s in the first races at Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond International Raceway, and Pocono, expect him to be equally strong on those tracks in the fall—as well as New Hampshire in the summer and fall. If he stumbles on those courses, he should struggle elsewhere as well since flat tracks act as the bellwether of his season.
Victories: Daytona (spring), Watkins Glen, Richmond (fall)
Top-fives: 12 (.333)
Top-10s: 22 (.611)
Top-15s: 27 (.750)
He does not draw a paycheck from JGR, but Truex and the Front Row Motorsports are associates with the larger organization. In 2016, the partnership finally began to produce results and that was due in no small part to the largesse of success that spilled over from Gibbs.
Even with his high degree of success, however, Hamlin was not a consistently good value at the start of the season. Perhaps because he had nothing to lose with a win under his belt, Hamlin and team fell down the order quickly with sub-15th-place results in four of the next seven races. In the first half of the season, he earned only seven top-10s in 18 events and while three of these were second- or third-place results, he managed to back up one top 10 with another on only two occasions.
It will come as no surprise that he began to turn his season around on a short, flat track. Just past the midway point, Hamlin finished ninth at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That was followed by a fourth at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the Brickyard 400 and a seventh at Pocono Raceway. This streak of flat track top-10s established a nine-race streak of results ninth or better and made him one of the favorites to win the championship.
Hamlin was undoubtedly ecstatic to advance to the third round of the Chase. With short, flat track races at Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix International Raceway he expected to advance on a win. Texas Motor Speedway was the third venue, and that is also one of his best tracks in terms of career average finishes. Hamlin swept the top 10, but scored only one top-five in those three events and that was the difference maker. He was not part of the Championship Four, but flat tracks will continue to play a critical role in 2017’s Chase—and they will be critical to his attractiveness as a fantasy asset.
Eight of Hamlin’s 22 top-10s came on minimally-banked courses.
Hamlin was also one to the top contenders on road courses in 2016. He came within a few hundred yards of sweeping Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International, but made the mistake of letting Tony Stewart get a little too close to his bumper in the hairpin. The retiring veteran knocked Hamlin into the wall, but he held onto to finish second. Hamlin won the Cheez-it 355 at the Glen.
Predictability will be critical in 2017. If Hamlin scores top-10s in the first races at Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond International Raceway, and Pocono, expect him to be equally strong on those tracks in the fall—as well as New Hampshire in the summer and fall. If he stumbles on those courses, he should struggle elsewhere as well since flat tracks act as the bellwether of his season.
Victories: Daytona (spring), Watkins Glen, Richmond (fall)
Top-fives: 12 (.333)
Top-10s: 22 (.611)
Top-15s: 27 (.750)
|
Track
|
3-Yr
Avg. Fin |
Career
Avg. Fin |
Best
Fin |
Career
Attempts
|
Career
Top-10s |
Race 1
|
Race 2
|
|
Indianapolis Motor Speedway |
4.00
|
13.36
|
3
|
11
|
6
|
4
|
|
|
Chicagoland Speedway |
4.33
|
16.09
|
1
|
11
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
Daytona International Speedway |
5.50
|
17.14
|
1
|
22
|
7
|
1
|
17
|
|
Homestead - Miami Speedway |
6.75
|
10.58
|
1
|
12
|
8
|
9
|
|
|
Darlington Raceway |
8.67
|
6.27
|
1
|
11
|
9
|
4
|
|
|
Pocono Raceway |
11.00
|
12.14
|
1
|
22
|
14
|
14
|
7
|
|
Las Vegas Motor Speedway |
12.00
|
12.82
|
3
|
11
|
5
|
19
|
|
|
Dover Downs International * |
12.00
|
18.18
|
4
|
22
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
|
Martinsville Speedway |
12.17
|
9.23
|
1
|
22
|
17
|
39
|
3
|
|
Charlotte Motor Speedway |
12.83
|
13.13
|
2
|
23
|
14
|
4
|
30
|
|
Richmond International Raceway * |
13.00
|
10.10
|
1
|
21
|
12
|
6
|
1
|
|
Phoenix International Raceway * |
13.29
|
10.87
|
1
|
23
|
13
|
3
|
7
|
|
New Hampshire Motor Speedway |
14.17
|
10.41
|
1
|
22
|
13
|
9
|
15
|
|
Sonoma Raceway |
15.33
|
20.82
|
2
|
11
|
3
|
2
|
|
|
Texas Motor Speedway |
15.50
|
12.00
|
1
|
22
|
11
|
12
|
9
|
|
Auto Club Speedway |
15.50
|
18.53
|
3
|
16
|
5
|
3
|
|
|
Michigan International Speedway |
15.67
|
15.18
|
1
|
22
|
10
|
33
|
9
|
|
Bristol Motor Speedway |
16.33
|
16.18
|
1
|
22
|
10
|
20
|
3
|
|
Talladega SuperSpeedway |
16.50
|
19.18
|
1
|
22
|
8
|
31
|
3
|
|
Watkins Glen International |
17.33
|
18.91
|
1
|
11
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
Atlanta Motor Speedway |
19.00
|
18.00
|
1
|
17
|
6
|
16
|
|
|
Kansas Speedway |
20.00
|
16.65
|
1
|
17
|
5
|
37
|
15
|
|
Kentucky Speedway |
20.00
|
18.17
|
3
|
6
|
2
|
15
|
