via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver
Most NASCAR teams put the lion’s share of their effort into running
well on unrestricted, intermediate speedways. These tracks require a
delicate balance of aerodynamics, mechanical grip, horsepower, and a
driver with nerves of steel. There is a way to look deeper at the list,
however; intermediate tracks comprise more than a third of the races in
the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, so fantasy owners need to find
subsets.
The two-mile tracks are easy to lift out of the unrestricted, intermediate speedway statistics because Michigan International Speedway Auto Club Speedway are perhaps the closest comparatives one will find on the circuit. In fact, when Roger Penske built what was then dubbed California Speedway, he started with the blueprints of Michigan and made only minor changes. Through the years, the wear on the surface changed the racing somewhat, but a quick look at the chart at the end of this article shows something remarkable: six drivers swept the top 10 on this track type. Two of them swept the top six. One other might well have joined the list of top-10 sweepers if Kyle Larson had not sustained crash damage at Auto Club in March.
That perfect combination only comes with a ton of resources and it changes the complexion of dark horses. Instead of mid-funded teams, the second or third driver in an organization can often rise to the top of the charts. That might well explain the fact that Chase Elliott has the best average finish in the 2016’s three races on two-mile tracks. Of course, his father Bill was certainly no slouch on this track type and undoubtedly passed a lot of knowledge onto his son, but Chase came within one spot of winning both Michigan races and finished sixth at Auto Club early in the season.
In both races, Elliott battled Larson at the end of the afternoon. In fact, Elliott and Larson might have gotten distracted with their own battle in the FireKeepers Casino 400 and let Joey Logano slip past for the win. That would not be the case when the series returned to the Irish Hills in August. Larson needed a win to advance to the playoffs and he got it by passing a dominant Elliott at the end of the race.
Kevin Harvick was the only driver to sweep the top five. He finished in the runner-up position to Jimmie Johnson at Auto Club and then posted identical marks of fifth in Michigan’s two events.
That brings up another point about the two-mile tracks. There are not a lot of surprises on this course type as a quick scan of the top 10 will note—but the revelations come more in who is missing from that list than who is concluded. Joe Gibbs Racing has been incredibly strong on this track type throughout their history—but in 2016, only Carl Edwards made the top 10 list. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth land just outside that mark in 11th and 12th respectively, while Kyle Busch had only the 32nd-best average finish.
In 2016, rookie contenders Elliott and Ryan Blaney earned top-fives on this track type, so fantasy owners might want to keep an eye on Erik Jones and Ty Dillon in 2017. Both drivers are in satellite teams for larger organizations so Gibbs’ power supporting the No. 78 and Richard Childress Racing engines in the No. 13 are going to separate these Young Guns from the competition and make them remarkable sleepers.
The two-mile tracks are easy to lift out of the unrestricted, intermediate speedway statistics because Michigan International Speedway Auto Club Speedway are perhaps the closest comparatives one will find on the circuit. In fact, when Roger Penske built what was then dubbed California Speedway, he started with the blueprints of Michigan and made only minor changes. Through the years, the wear on the surface changed the racing somewhat, but a quick look at the chart at the end of this article shows something remarkable: six drivers swept the top 10 on this track type. Two of them swept the top six. One other might well have joined the list of top-10 sweepers if Kyle Larson had not sustained crash damage at Auto Club in March.
That perfect combination only comes with a ton of resources and it changes the complexion of dark horses. Instead of mid-funded teams, the second or third driver in an organization can often rise to the top of the charts. That might well explain the fact that Chase Elliott has the best average finish in the 2016’s three races on two-mile tracks. Of course, his father Bill was certainly no slouch on this track type and undoubtedly passed a lot of knowledge onto his son, but Chase came within one spot of winning both Michigan races and finished sixth at Auto Club early in the season.
In both races, Elliott battled Larson at the end of the afternoon. In fact, Elliott and Larson might have gotten distracted with their own battle in the FireKeepers Casino 400 and let Joey Logano slip past for the win. That would not be the case when the series returned to the Irish Hills in August. Larson needed a win to advance to the playoffs and he got it by passing a dominant Elliott at the end of the race.
Kevin Harvick was the only driver to sweep the top five. He finished in the runner-up position to Jimmie Johnson at Auto Club and then posted identical marks of fifth in Michigan’s two events.
That brings up another point about the two-mile tracks. There are not a lot of surprises on this course type as a quick scan of the top 10 will note—but the revelations come more in who is missing from that list than who is concluded. Joe Gibbs Racing has been incredibly strong on this track type throughout their history—but in 2016, only Carl Edwards made the top 10 list. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth land just outside that mark in 11th and 12th respectively, while Kyle Busch had only the 32nd-best average finish.
In 2016, rookie contenders Elliott and Ryan Blaney earned top-fives on this track type, so fantasy owners might want to keep an eye on Erik Jones and Ty Dillon in 2017. Both drivers are in satellite teams for larger organizations so Gibbs’ power supporting the No. 78 and Richard Childress Racing engines in the No. 13 are going to separate these Young Guns from the competition and make them remarkable sleepers.
Rank
|
Driver
|
Avg.
|
Michigan 2
|
Michigan 1
|
Auto Club
|
| 1. | Chase Elliott |
3.33
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
| 2. | Kevin Harvick |
4.00
|
5
|
5
|
2
|
| 3. | Joey Logano |
5.00
|
10
|
1
|
4
|
| 4. | Brad Keselowski |
5.33
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
| 5. | Carl Edwards |
6.67
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
| 6. | Jimmie Johnson |
7.67
|
6
|
16
|
1
|
| 7. | Jamie McMurray |
9.00
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
| 8. | Ryan Newman |
14.00
|
17
|
11
|
14
|
| 9. | Tony Stewart |
14.00
|
21
|
7
|
|
| 10. | Kyle Larson |
14.33
|
1
|
3
|
39
|
| 11. | Denny Hamlin |
15.00
|
9
|
33
|
3
|
| 12. | Matt Kenseth |
15.33
|
13
|
14
|
19
|
| 13. | Austin Dillon |
16.00
|
16
|
8
|
24
|
| 14. | Paul Menard |
17.00
|
18
|
18
|
15
|
| 15. | Kurt Busch |
17.33
|
12
|
10
|
30
|
| 16. | Kasey Kahne |
18.33
|
14
|
13
|
28
|
| 17. | Ryan Blaney |
18.67
|
4
|
17
|
35
|
| 18. | Trevor Bayne |
19.67
|
24
|
15
|
20
|
| 19. | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
20.33
|
27
|
29
|
5
|
| 20. | AJ Allmendinger |
20.33
|
15
|
38
|
8
|
| 21. | Martin Truex Jr. |
21.33
|
20
|
12
|
32
|
| 22. | Greg Biffle |
22.33
|
11
|
19
|
37
|
| 23. | Casey Mears |
23.67
|
22
|
32
|
17
|
| 24. | Ty Dillon |
24.00
|
24
|
||
| 25. | Aric Almirola |
24.00
|
25
|
26
|
21
|
| 26. | David Ragan |
24.33
|
29
|
22
|
22
|
| 27. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
25.00
|
39
|
11
|
|
| 28. | Brian Scott |
25.33
|
28
|
36
|
12
|
| 29. | Landon Cassill |
26.67
|
39
|
25
|
16
|
| 30. | Clint Bowyer |
27.00
|
40
|
23
|
18
|
| 31. | Danica Patrick |
27.33
|
23
|
21
|
38
|
| 32. | Kyle Busch |
28.00
|
19
|
40
|
25
|
| 33. | Regan Smith |
28.00
|
26
|
35
|
23
|
| 34. | Cole Whitt |
29.00
|
34
|
27
|
26
|
| 35. | Chris Buescher |
29.33
|
35
|
20
|
33
|
| 36. | Alex Bowman |
30.00
|
30
|
||
| 37. | Michael Annett |
30.00
|
33
|
28
|
29
|
| 38. | Michael McDowell |
31.00
|
31
|
31
|
|
| 39. | Matt DiBenedetto |
31.00
|
32
|
34
|
27
|
| 40. | Reed Sorenson |
33.50
|
36
|
31
|
|
| 41. | Josh Wise |
34.67
|
38
|
30
|
36
|
| 42. | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
36.00
|
37
|
37
|
34
|
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