via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
is a complete unknown for 2017. It would have been just as easy to rank
him 12th as seventh—and if one looks at the entire 2016 season, the
higher number would be more appropriate. He finished outside of the top
10 in two-thirds of his starts, including nine of his last 10.
In those final 10 races, however, there was the extenuating circumstance of his concussion. An accident in the May Geico 500 at Talladega SuperSpeedway, may have started the dominoes falling and exacerbated an earlier injury. Junior has suffered previous concussions and it seems to take less and less trauma to trigger the next. Two weeks later, he crashed again at Dover International Speedway. Three weeks after that, he crashed hard at Michigan International Speedway, and two weeks further into the season, he suffered through a fifth incident and completed a sweep of restrictor-plate, superspeedway accidents at Daytona International Speedway. Junior also crashed and failed to finish the Daytona 500.
In those closing events, Earnhardt was solid in the five races following Talladega in which he did not crash. He swept the top 15 on the other tracks and came one position shy of winning the Axalta 400 at Pocono Raceway. Had he won that race—or any of the other three events in which he finished second—the decision to sit out the season would have been much more difficult.
One reason Earnhardt is ranked this high in 2017 is because those top-15s in his final weeks might well have been impacted by the concussion. With a little sharper focus, he should have earned top-10s instead of -15 and that would put him ahead of most of the drivers already profiled. By comparison, Matt Kenseth [2017 Driver Profile] had top-10s in .527 percent of his races to Earnhardt’s .333, but Junior holds an advantage in top-15 at .722 to Matt’s .667.
There is also the not-so-little matter of his four second-place finishes. Most of them came at a time when Hendrick Motorsports was struggling ever so slightly. Teammate Jimmie Johnson had not yet found the switch that he turned at the end of the season, Kasey Kahne complained about less-powerful cars than the competition, and Chase Elliott was behaving like a rookie by alternating great runs with a smattering of mistakes. In the NASCAR Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, a little bit makes a huge difference.
Still, it will pay dividends to remember this: it seems to take less trauma to trigger the next concussion. One hates to think it, but the next big hit Earnhardt takes could cause him to retire. He has a passion for racing, but last year proved that his health and family are of utmost importance. In games that commit a player to an entire season, he could be a difficult selection because he might well fail to get to Homestead-Miami Speedway behind the wheel of the No. 88. In the races he runs, however, he will challenge for more top-10s almost every week and we will be surprised if he does not win at least two in 2017.
Victories: None
Top-fives: 5 (.277)
Top-10s: 6 (.333)
Top-15s: 13 (.722)
In those final 10 races, however, there was the extenuating circumstance of his concussion. An accident in the May Geico 500 at Talladega SuperSpeedway, may have started the dominoes falling and exacerbated an earlier injury. Junior has suffered previous concussions and it seems to take less and less trauma to trigger the next. Two weeks later, he crashed again at Dover International Speedway. Three weeks after that, he crashed hard at Michigan International Speedway, and two weeks further into the season, he suffered through a fifth incident and completed a sweep of restrictor-plate, superspeedway accidents at Daytona International Speedway. Junior also crashed and failed to finish the Daytona 500.
In those closing events, Earnhardt was solid in the five races following Talladega in which he did not crash. He swept the top 15 on the other tracks and came one position shy of winning the Axalta 400 at Pocono Raceway. Had he won that race—or any of the other three events in which he finished second—the decision to sit out the season would have been much more difficult.
One reason Earnhardt is ranked this high in 2017 is because those top-15s in his final weeks might well have been impacted by the concussion. With a little sharper focus, he should have earned top-10s instead of -15 and that would put him ahead of most of the drivers already profiled. By comparison, Matt Kenseth [2017 Driver Profile] had top-10s in .527 percent of his races to Earnhardt’s .333, but Junior holds an advantage in top-15 at .722 to Matt’s .667.
There is also the not-so-little matter of his four second-place finishes. Most of them came at a time when Hendrick Motorsports was struggling ever so slightly. Teammate Jimmie Johnson had not yet found the switch that he turned at the end of the season, Kasey Kahne complained about less-powerful cars than the competition, and Chase Elliott was behaving like a rookie by alternating great runs with a smattering of mistakes. In the NASCAR Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, a little bit makes a huge difference.
Still, it will pay dividends to remember this: it seems to take less trauma to trigger the next concussion. One hates to think it, but the next big hit Earnhardt takes could cause him to retire. He has a passion for racing, but last year proved that his health and family are of utmost importance. In games that commit a player to an entire season, he could be a difficult selection because he might well fail to get to Homestead-Miami Speedway behind the wheel of the No. 88. In the races he runs, however, he will challenge for more top-10s almost every week and we will be surprised if he does not win at least two in 2017.
Victories: None
Top-fives: 5 (.277)
Top-10s: 6 (.333)
Top-15s: 13 (.722)
|
Track
|
3-Yr
Avg. Fin |
Career
Avg. Fin |
Best
Fin |
Career
Attempts |
Career
Top-10s |
Race 1
|
Race 2
|
|
Pocono Raceway |
3.80
|
14.42
|
1
|
33
|
15
|
2
|
|
|
Las Vegas Motor Speedway |
4.67
|
13.71
|
2
|
17
|
10
|
8
|
|
|
Darlington Raceway |
5.00
|
14.00
|
2
|
21
|
10
|
|
|
|
Atlanta Motor Speedway |
5.33
|
11.62
|
1
|
29
|
14
|
2
|
|
|
Sonoma Raceway |
7.00
|
18.94
|
3
|
17
|
2
|
11
|
|
|
Auto Club Speedway |
9.67
|
18.63
|
2
|
24
|
7
|
11
|
|
|
Richmond International Raceway |
10.20
|
13.24
|
1
|
34
|
14
|
13
|
|
|
Watkins Glen International |
11.00
|
21.69
|
3
|
16
|
3
|
|
|
|
Chicagoland Speedway |
11.50
|
15.27
|
1
|
15
|
5
|
|
|
|
Martinsville Speedway |
11.60
|
12.94
|
1
|
33
|
18
|
14
|
|
|
Phoenix International Raceway |
11.80
|
16.11
|
1
|
28
|
14
|
5
|
|
|
Texas Motor Speedway |
12.00
|
13.43
|
1
|
28
|
17
|
2
|
|
|
New Hampshire Motor Speedway |
12.25
|
15.27
|
3
|
33
|
15
|
|
|
|
Michigan International Speedway |
12.60
|
15.76
|
1
|
34
|
14
|
39
|
|
|
Daytona International Speedway |
12.67
|
13.62
|
1
|
34
|
19
|
36
|
21
|
|
Kentucky Speedway |
13.00
|
14.17
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
13
|
|
|
Dover Downs International |
15.00
|
16.21
|
1
|
33
|
12
|
32
|
|
|
Indianapolis Motor Speedway |
15.50
|
18.81
|
4
|
16
|
5
|
|
|
|
Kansas Speedway |
16.60
|
16.10
|
2
|
20
|
9
|
15
|
|
|
Charlotte Motor Speedway |
16.80
|
19.03
|
3
|
33
|
12
|
14
|
|
|
Bristol Motor Speedway |
18.00
|
12.52
|
1
|
33
|
16
|
2
|
|
|
Talladega SuperSpeedway |
20.00
|
15.42
|
1
|
33
|
16
|
40
|
|
|
Homestead - Miami Speedway |
27.00
|
22.69
|
3
|
13
|
2
|
|
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