via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver
At the start of 2016, Matt Kenseth
seemed to suffer from the lingering effects of an emotional end to the
previous year. Suspended for two races after intentionally wrecking Joey Logano
at Martinsville Speedway, he limped to the off-season, and then failed
to perform particularly well in the opening events of what might have
been his fresh start. He failed to complete all the laps at Atlanta
Motor Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His first 10 efforts
produced only two top-10s—a pair of sevenths—so he never seriously
challenged for a top-five.
Until May.
Kansas Speedway was the site of one of his notable 2015 run-ins with Logano. In that track’s fall race, he blocked the No. 22 for several laps until Logano tired of following. A slight tap to Kenseth’s back bumper sent him spinning out of contention for the win and with another pair of disappointments, the No. 20 failed to advance from that round. Galvanized by the memory, Kenseth finished fourth in the 2016 GoBowling.com 400 to record his first top-five of the season; he won his next outing at Dover International Speedway and earned a berth into the Chase.
After that, finishing results did not matter much any longer. Kenseth added another victory in July at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and finished second the following week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but he seemed to be biding his time until the Chase. Once it began, he put together his longest streak of top-10s. From Chicagoland Speedway through the fall Kansas race, he strung five together including a pair of seconds at New Hampshire and Charlotte Motor Speedway. Advancing from the third round requires either a near perfect record or a victory; Kenseth finished 21st at Phoenix International Raceway and was not a part of the Championship Four.
Kenseth was a good value in 2016, but he was rarely great. What he did have, however, was consistency on a few predictable tracks and that made him worth starting. He swept the top five at New Hampshire and Dover—the site of his two wins—and added another pair of top-10 sweeps at Kansas and Charlotte. As fantasy players plan for the coming season, they will want to highlight those tracks and concentrate their resources on them—unless and until he records a string of top-10s. Kenseth is a streaky driver for whom success breeds success.
Indy and Martinsville are the only other tracks on which he scored top-fives last year, so Kenseth might be regarded as a dark horse value on them as well.
Victories: Dover (spring), New Hampshire (summer)
Top-fives: 8 (.222)
Top-10s: 19 (.527)
Top-15s: 24 (.667)
+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps
Until May.
Kansas Speedway was the site of one of his notable 2015 run-ins with Logano. In that track’s fall race, he blocked the No. 22 for several laps until Logano tired of following. A slight tap to Kenseth’s back bumper sent him spinning out of contention for the win and with another pair of disappointments, the No. 20 failed to advance from that round. Galvanized by the memory, Kenseth finished fourth in the 2016 GoBowling.com 400 to record his first top-five of the season; he won his next outing at Dover International Speedway and earned a berth into the Chase.
After that, finishing results did not matter much any longer. Kenseth added another victory in July at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and finished second the following week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but he seemed to be biding his time until the Chase. Once it began, he put together his longest streak of top-10s. From Chicagoland Speedway through the fall Kansas race, he strung five together including a pair of seconds at New Hampshire and Charlotte Motor Speedway. Advancing from the third round requires either a near perfect record or a victory; Kenseth finished 21st at Phoenix International Raceway and was not a part of the Championship Four.
Kenseth was a good value in 2016, but he was rarely great. What he did have, however, was consistency on a few predictable tracks and that made him worth starting. He swept the top five at New Hampshire and Dover—the site of his two wins—and added another pair of top-10 sweeps at Kansas and Charlotte. As fantasy players plan for the coming season, they will want to highlight those tracks and concentrate their resources on them—unless and until he records a string of top-10s. Kenseth is a streaky driver for whom success breeds success.
Indy and Martinsville are the only other tracks on which he scored top-fives last year, so Kenseth might be regarded as a dark horse value on them as well.
Victories: Dover (spring), New Hampshire (summer)
Top-fives: 8 (.222)
Top-10s: 19 (.527)
Top-15s: 24 (.667)
|
Track
|
3-Yr
Avg. Fin |
Career
Avg. Fin |
Best
Fin
|
Career
Attempts |
Career
Top-10s |
Race 1
|
Race 2
|
|
Indianapolis Motor Speedway |
4.33
|
13.18
|
2
|
17
|
11
|
2
|
|
|
Homestead - Miami Speedway |
5.50
|
11.64
|
1
|
14
|
9
|
7
|
|
|
Kentucky Speedway |
5.67
|
5.17
|
1
|
6
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
New Hampshire Motor Speedway + |
5.83
|
12.03
|
1
|
34
|
19
|
1
|
2
|
|
Watkins Glen International |
7.67
|
14.18
|
4
|
17
|
7
|
10
|
|
|
Chicagoland Speedway |
8.00
|
11.13
|
1
|
16
|
8
|
9
|
|
|
Atlanta Motor Speedway |
8.67
|
12.25
|
2
|
28
|
16
|
19
|
|
|
Kansas Speedway * |
9.33
|
13.14
|
1
|
22
|
13
|
4
|
9
|
|
Dover Downs International + |
10.00
|
12.81
|
1
|
36
|
24
|
1
|
5
|
|
Darlington Raceway |
10.33
|
15.83
|
1
|
23
|
11
|
6
|
|
|
Martinsville Speedway |
12.17
|
14.76
|
2
|
34
|
13
|
15
|
4
|
|
Charlotte Motor Speedway * |
12.83
|
13.66
|
1
|
35
|
19
|
7
|
2
|
|
Phoenix International Raceway |
13.67
|
16.43
|
1
|
28
|
11
|
7
|
21
|
|
Michigan International Speedway |
14.00
|
10.37
|
1
|
35
|
20
|
14
|
13
|
|
Texas Motor Speedway |
14.60
|
9.43
|
1
|
28
|
18
|
11
|
7
|
|
Pocono Raceway |
15.67
|
15.06
|
1
|
34
|
13
|
7
|
17
|
|
Richmond International Raceway |
16.50
|
15.94
|
1
|
34
|
16
|
7
|
38
|
|
Auto Club Speedway |
18.00
|
11.08
|
1
|
24
|
15
|
19
|
|
|
Las Vegas Motor Speedway |
18.67
|
12.88
|
1
|
17
|
9
|
37
|
|
|
Daytona International Speedway |
21.00
|
18.15
|
1
|
34
|
14
|
14
|
28
|
|
Bristol Motor Speedway |
22.00
|
14.18
|
1
|
34
|
20
|
36
|
37
|
|
Talladega Superspeedway |
23.50
|
19.43
|
1
|
35
|
10
|
23
|
28
|
|
Sonoma Raceway |
27.67
|
21.94
|
8
|
17
|
1
|
20
|
|
|
Inactive Tracks
|
|||||||
|
North Carolina Speedway |
|
15.20
|
|
10
|
6
|
|
|
|
Homestead - Miami Speedway - old |
|
29.33
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps
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