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Showing posts with label 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016. Show all posts

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Brad Keselowski Profile

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver

Brad Keselowski had an impressive 2016 season by anyone’s measure but his biggest disappointments came at the beginning and end of the season and that might contribute to his being overlooked by the competition.

Keselowski was the third driver to earn his Chase berth when he visited Victory Lane at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March’s Kobalt 400. He added another victory at Talladega SuperSpeedway in May, and posted consecutive wins at Daytona International Speedway and Kentucky Speedway during the summer. At that time, he looked like one of the favorites to win the Chase. In the span of nine races, he had three victories, six total top-fives, two more top-10s, and a worst result of 15th.

After posting two results in the mid-teens, Keselowski regained his momentum quickly and rattled off nine top-10s in his next 10 races. Most of these were top-fives and that streak carried him well into the Chase. During the playoffs, Keselowski showed a characteristic that at once makes him an attractive fantasy value and a challenge. In the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway, he was too aggressive while battling for a spot on the cusp of the top 10. He slid up in front of Denny Hamlin, lost his forward drive, and was tipped into the inside retaining wall.

Outside the care center, Keselowski was asked if discretion might have been a better choice and he defiantly said he would not stop racing the same way that earned him a Chase berth. But, only one race remained in that round—and it was coming on the wild card Talladega SuperSpeedway. Kez had one win in the bank already from that track, but plate races are never predictable and when he blew an engine on lap 144, his fate was sealed.

As it turned out, Keselowski would score only one top-10 after crashing at Kansas. That was a second at Martinsville Speedway and it completed a sweep of the top five on that course. Of the 13 tracks that hosted two races in 2016, Keselowski swept the top 10 on five of them, but he had top-10s in less than two-thirds of his starts and in only 40 percent of the Chase races.

Keselowski also got off to a relatively slow start. Despite winning in race three, he had only four top-10s in the first nine weeks. His victory at ‘Dega kicked off one of two long streaks, but fantasy owners might wish to be a little patient before activating him in contests that limit allocations or in Daily Fantasy Sports. Once he posts back-to-back top-10s, jump on the bandwagon immediately and ride it until he falls outside the top 15 in consecutive events.

Victories: Las Vegas, Talladega (spring), Daytona (summer), Kentucky
Top-fives: 16 (.444)
Top-10s: 22 (.611)
Top-15s: 27 (.750)

Track
3-Yr
Avg.
Fin
Career
Avg.
Fin
Best
Fin
Career
Attempts
Career
Top-10s
Race 1
Race 2
Kentucky Speedway
2.67
8.17
1
6
5
1

Las Vegas Motor Speedway
3.00
16.75
1
8
4
1
Chicagoland Speedway
4.67
9.63
1
8
6
5
Michigan International Speedway +
5.50
12.33
2
15
8
4
3
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
6.83
10.27
1
15
9
15
4
Dover Downs International *
7.00
14.27
1
15
6
6
4
Richmond International Raceway
7.50
15.07
1
15
6
11
4
Pocono Raceway +
8.17
11.29
1
14
7
3
2
Charlotte Motor Speedway *
9.00
13.40
1
15
7
5
7
Darlington Raceway
9.33
12.13
2
8
4
9

Texas Motor Speedway
9.50
16.24
2
17
6
18
14
Phoenix International Raceway
10.86
14.60
3
15
7
29
14
Homestead - Miami Speedway Progressive
11.75
15.89
3
9
3
35
Auto Club Speedway
12.00
18.75
1
8
2
9
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
13.00
13.86
9
7
3
17
Watkins Glen International
15.00
10.14
2
7
5
3
Talladega SuperSpeedway
17.33
15.38
1
16
9
1
38
Bristol Motor Speedway
18.00
15.93
1
14
5
18
33
Martinsville Speedway +
18.33
13.79
2
14
8
5
2
Sonoma Raceway
18.67
19.14
10
7
1
15
Daytona International Speedway
18.67
22.25
1
16
4
20
1
Kansas Speedway
18.83
13.93
1
14
7
10
38
Atlanta Motor Speedway
19.00
20.25
3
8
4
9

+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps
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Monday, January 16, 2017

1.5-Mile Doglegs - Statistically Speaking

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver
The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks often get classified together. Atlanta Motor Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, and Kentucky Speedway all have the commonality of being 1.5-miles in length with either a dogleg or double-dogleg on the frontstretch.

From overhead the courses look the same, which has caused them to be called "cookie-cutter" tracks, but just as there are a wide variety of the baked good that lends its name to this moniker, there is variation among the speedways. And, as it turns out, however, the similarities often outweigh the differences so that drivers who run well on one of these seven often run well on all of them. To excel on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, a team needs the total package of driver skill and daring, strategy, horsepower, and mechanical grip. All of these come at a high price, so marquee teams tend to dominate.

Martin Truex Jr. has the best average finish on this track type with a 7.7 in 10 races. In itself, that is enough to identify Furniture Row Racing as one of the preeminent teams because they were able to regularly outperform the Joe Gibbs Racing associates who provided them with engines and notes. Truex won the Coke 600 in such dominant fashion that it was impossible to win any league that week without him activated. He won again at Chicagoland in the fall and had several other opportunities to win before either suffering an unexpected calamity or falling to a mistake. Expect teammate Erik Jones to do about half-again as well.

Kyle Busch sits second on the chart with an average finish that is only slightly lower than Truex. And, in some ways he might have been the better overall value because his statistics are skewed by an accident at Charlotte eight laps from the end of the 600. He posted back-to-back wins on the track type with victories at Texas and Kansas. Teammate Matt Kenseth was the class of the field on this track type in 2013, and Carl Edwards also earned a victory in 2016 to prove JGR is more than capable of running well there. Edwards’ abrupt departure will shake up the numbers a bit, but fantasy players can expect Daniel Suarez to earn a few top-10s on the course type and be one of the best dark horse choices many weeks.

Jimmie Johnson had an uneven season, but it is notable that he was at his best on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks that dominate the schedule. He established the No. 48 team as part of the Chase early with a win in the Folds of Honor Quicktrip 500 at Atlanta and surged when needed during the Chase with another win at Charlotte in the fall. While Homestead-Miami Speedway is not commonly considered in this track type because of its unique shape as a true oval, his victory on that 1.5-miler secured the championship.

Texas Motor Speedway
Speedway Motorsports Incorporated has always though outside if the box. Several years ago they employed progressive banking at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which was the first time a track of this size tried that. It was a bold experiment, but really did not change the complexion of the race much and the same drivers who ran well before that change continued to find success.

Now, Texas Motor Speedway is trying something new. They felt the track was in need of a repaving job and knew without any reservation that the drainage needed to be improved, so while they have the track torn up, they decided to decrease the degree of banking in turns one and two and widen that end of the track. This will force drivers to approach each end differently and is expected to increase side-by-side racing on the flatter turn.

It might take a season or two to determine just how effective the change will be, but some impact will be seen right away. New asphalt will contribute to drivers running the lower groove, but they will have an opportunity to get off the bottom in turns one and two. Since the new track is an unknown, Young Guns might be expected to do better-than-normal. Since the track is going to require compromise, however, one might also look to Darlington Raceway for inspiration and the drivers with the best three-year average there are Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin.

Victories:Jimmie Johnson: Atlanta, Charlotte (fall)
Brad Keselowski: Las Vegas, Kentucky
Kyle Busch: Texas (spring), Kansas (spring)
Martin Truex Jr.: Charlotte (spring), Chicagoland
Kevin Harvick: Kansas (fall)
Carl Edwards: Texas (fall) 

Driver
Avg.
TX 2
KS 2
CLT 2
CHI
KY
CLT 1
KS 1
TX 1
LV
ATL 
7.70
3
11
13
1
10
1
14
6
11
7
7.80
5
5
6
8
12
33
1
1
4
3
8.80
11
4
1
12
32
3
17
4
3
1
8.90
20
13
8
13
4
6
3
9
9
4
9.00




13
14
15
2
8
2
10.10
6
1
38
20
9
2
2
10
7
6
10.80
14
38
7
5
1
5
10
18
1
9
11.30
7
9
2
9
8
7
4
11
37
19
11.90
10
12
4
19
3
10
7
17
13
24
12.10
8
10
3
7
14
22
16
8
10
23
14.60
2
3
36
2
39
9
38
3
2
12
15.80
37
6
32
14
16
12
6
19
5
11
16.14
31
16
9
16
5
24
12



16.30
9
15
30
6
15
4
37
12
19
16
17.00
4
31
33
3
31
8
9
5
38
8
17.25
13
7
39
10






17.90
19
37
10
11
7
19
26
13
16
21
18.10
12
14
31
4
35
20
5
29
6
25
18.60
16
19
20
25
40
15
13
16
12
10
19.70
24
18
11
24
17
21
20
21
21
20
20.20
17
8
37
17
36
16
8
22
14
27
20.30
30
17
18
23
11
25
25
15
17
22
20.90
15
30
5
18
19
13
35
14
34
26
22.00
18
25
35
26
6
11
27
39
20
13
22.25



27
25


20

17
23.60
22
40
15
32
20
26
18
24
24
15
23.70
28
20
34
21
18
17
40
26
15
18
25.00
25
26
17
22
23
23
19
38
22
35
26.60
21
21
16
28
37
37
24
28
26
28
27.50
23
22
14
37

34
28

29
33
27.70
27
28
22
31
33
29
22
27
27
31
27.70
39
23
40
34
30
30
21
23
23
14
27.89
26
29
21

34
28
23
31
25
34
28.00
29
27
19
29
29
27
31
25
28
36
30.33

24
25
30
38
32
30
34
31
29
30.60
33
36
23
35
22
31
29
33
32
32
30.70
32
32
24
33
26
36
32
32
30
30
33.00

33
27
36
21
35
39
30
39
37
33.29
34

26

28
39

35
33
38
34.00
35
34
28
39
27
40
33
36


35.80
40
39
29
38
24
38
36
40
35
39
36.25
36
35

40


34



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