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Monday, January 2, 2017

Short Tracks - Statistically Speaking

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver.
No one managed to sweep the top 10 last year on the short tracks of Martinsville Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, and Richmond International Raceway but two came close.

Which driver should top the list will depend on whether a fantasy player values consistency or outright speed.

Jimmie Johnson used the fall Martinsville race to punch his ticket to the Chase finale. Hendrick Motorsports has always been strong on this track and Johnson has been a large part of their mystique with eight wins entering the fall Goody’s Fast Relief 500. He started third en route to Victory Lane, but that was not a foregone conclusion at the drop of the green because he had not earned a top-five on this bullring in his last five attempts. He had only one other top-five on a short track in 2016 and that was a third in Richmond’s spring race—which limited his overall appeal.

Joey Logano was far more consistent, but he failed to score a single top-five during the season. In six attempts on courses less than a mile in length, JoLo’s worst effort was an 11th. His best finished was only an eighth in the April Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond, so owners had some tough decisions to make. He would not cost very many fantasy points during the season, but in games where he was overpriced, he kept one from getting a strong enough mid-cap driver to round out the roster.

In some ways, that might leave Kevin Harvick as the top-ranked short track driver for the season. He struggled in both of Martinsville’s races last year, but finished seventh or better in the other four events. One of these was a victory in the August Night Race at Bristol, which was one of several occasions when he scored maximum points for the season.

Carl Edwards was the only driver in the field to win two short track races and he did that back-to-back at Bristol and Richmond in the spring. Those two wins were bracketed by a pair of sixth-place finishes on this course type, but once he barely missed the top five under the summer Bristol lights, he stumbled badly to finish in the 30s at Richmond and Martinsville in the fall.

Teammate Denny Hamlin had the opposite happen. He finished 39th at Martinsville in the spring and was 20th at Bristol, but once he found his rhythm he was hard to beat. The short, flat track master finished sixth at Richmond in the spring and then swept the top three in the next three attempts. He won the regular season finale at Richmond in front of the home state crowd and carried that momentum with him into the Chase.

Kyle Busch won the remaining short track race at Martinsville in the spring, giving Joe Gibbs Racing four of six victories. His success at Martinsville in the spring was confirmed by a second in the first Richmond race.

The organization’s strength did not extend to Matt Kenseth, however. He scored one top-five and another top-10, but his average finish was destroyed by three sub-35th-place efforts.

Rank
Driver
Avg. Fin
Martinsville 2
Richmond 2
Bristol 2
Richmond 1
Bristol 1
Martinsville 1
1.
9.00
1
11
7
3
23
9
2.
9.17
20
5
1
5
7
17
3.
9.67
9
10
10
8
10
11
4.
12.00
3
1
3
6
20
39
5.
12.17
2
4
33
11
18
5
6.
12.17
11
6
13
4
17
22
7.
12.33
7
3
23
9
14
18
8.
12.50
8
7
8
16
13
23
9.
13.67
36
32
6
1
1
6
10.
13.67
12
19
15
12
4
20
11.
14.00
17
13
4
20
26
4
12.
14.17
10
20
9
25
19
2
13.
15.00
13
23
16
14
12
12
14.
15.50
14
2
24
15
35
3
15.
15.67
5
9
39
2
38
1
16.
15.67
22
8
38
10
3
13
17.
16.33
23
14
12
17
5
27
18.
18.17
16
28
28
18
9
10
19.
21.33
24
15
22
24
27
16
20.
22.17
18
12
19
31
29
24
21.
22.33
40
18
2
26
16
32
22.
22.83
4
38
37
7
36
15
23.
23.50
15
17
14
21
34
40
24.
23.67
25
40
32
22
15
8
25.
24.00
27
24
5
34
21
33
26.
24.50
28
22
31
33
8
25
27.
25.00




25

28.
25.17
19
39
35
28
11
19
29.
25.17
21
21
25
29
24
31
30.
25.17
32
37
17
30
6
29
31.
27.00
26
33
30
19


32.
27.00
29
36
20
27
22
28
33.
28.00
31
25




34.
29.17
37
34
21
23
39
21
35.
29.67
34
35
18
35
30
26
36.
31.33
30
29
26
32
37
34
37.
31.80
33
27
29
38
32

38.
33.25

41
34

28
30
39.
33.60
35
31

36
31
35
40.
34.67
38
26
27
40
40
37
41.
35.20

30
36
39
33
38
42.
36.00





36
43.
39.00
39





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