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Saturday, March 5, 2016

Kobalt 400 Stats

From NASCAR.com.


This week’s race: Kobalt 400
Traditional Name: Las Vegas 400
Other Notable Names: Shelby 427, UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400, CarsDirect.com 400

Las Vegas has been on the NASCAR calendar since 1998, but none of the drivers entered this week have been on the circuit that long. Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have the most experience with 16 of the 18 events. Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick have 15 races under their belts, so fantasy players who value experience will want to watch them closely on Saturday.

Experience counts. Both Earnhardt and Kenseth are ranked among the top five this week. Notably, Newman and Harvick are not in the top 10, however, and there are some fresh faces counted among the leaders including Paul Menard, AJ Allmendinger, and Kasey Kahne—who has plenty of laps around the NASCAR circuit, but has not been the strongest driver in the field in recent seasons.

Progressive banking was added to the track in 2006, so a decade has passed since the racers had a cushion on which to lean.

In the past 10 races, several drivers have recorded seven top-15s and a few more have six. Only Earnhardt has eight results that strong and all but one of those was a top-10. Depending on the game, the No. 88 could be a great pick, but only if he is priced right. He has only three top-fives on the progressive banking and is beaten in that regard by Jimmie Johnson, Kenseth, and Carl Edwards.

10 best drivers at Las Vegas

Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Brad Keselowski
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 7 attempts

Keselowski’s first four races at Vegas were terrible. He finished outside the top 25 from 2009 through 2015 and then was awarded the pole in 2013 through NASCAR’s current rules. That was the first time he started among the top 10 and it was contributed to his third-place finish. Keselowski won the next year and finished seventh in 2015, which combines for a stellar three-year average.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 4.33
Career avg. finish: 14.1 in 16 attempts

Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2009, Earnhardt has been almost perfect at Las Vegas. He finished in the top 10 seven times in his last eight attempts. His last two were top-fives and he might have earned his first career victory on this track in 2014 if not for the fact that he ran out of gas on the final lap of the Kobalt 400.

3. Matt Kenseth
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 11.4 in 16 attempts

Kenseth takes Vegas in waves. He won back-to-back races on this track in 2003/2004, scored three more top-10s and then struggled in four of the next five races. He won his third Vegas race in 2013 and has scored a pair of top-10s in the past two events. With a 10th in 2014 and a ninth last year, both were on the high side, however.

4. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 7.50 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 14.4 in 11 attempts

Neither Busch brother was in the field last year for their hometown race and Kyle’s two-year average is far from a mark that makes him a must-have. In 2013 he scored a top-five; last year he missed the top 10 by a narrow margin. His past three races also includes a 23rd in 2012, and that would make him a risky proposition if not for the momentum he currently has this season.

5. Martin Truex Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 14.6 in 10 attempts

Truex has earned top-10s in every other Vegas race for the past five years. In the last three events, he swept the top 15 and his average is helped by a second last year to Harvick. The driver of the No. 78 is starting the season with as much momentum as he had in 2015 and that is a good omen.

6. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.33
Career avg. finish: 16.7 in 9 attempts

Menard has not finished worse than 12th since he climbed behind the wheel of the No. 27. In those five races, he has been running on the lead lap at the end of every event and finished better than he started, so his qualification effort of 15th this week suggests he will score a top-15 in the Kobalt 400.

7. Joey Logano
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 12.0 in 7 attempts

Logano finished 12th or better in his last three Vegas races, but his real strength came in the past two. He won the pole in 2014 and finished fourth. Last year, he rolled off the grid from the outside of the front row and finished 10th. If he and Keselowski can figure out the low down force package, they both should contend for top-10s again.

8. Kasey Kahne
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 13.8 in 12 attempts

While he has struggled elsewhere, Kahne has been relatively solid at Vegas in the past four year. He won the pole in 2012, finished second the following year, and was eighth in 2014. Last year, he slipped to 17th, however, but that was partly because of crash damage that cost him a lap.

9. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 10.67
Career avg. finish: 12.2 in 10 attempts

Drivers can only get strong results if they are around at the end of a race. Hamlin has been running at the checkers in all 10 events he started at Vegas and was on the lead lap in all but one of those. Still, he has not always been in the very forefront of the field and has only one top-10 in his last four attempts. That was a fifth in last year’s edition of this race.

10. AJ Allmendinger            
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 12.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 28.3 in 8 attempts

Allmendinger sat out the 2013 season at Vegas and that is probably part of the reason he landed inside the top 10 this week. He has only two results in the past three years and one of these was a sixth last year that skews his average high. His most recent three attempts netted an average of 20.33 and that would land him in the bottom third of the grid.

Others of Note

15. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.00
Career avg. finish: 13.8 in 15 attempts

If not for a hub problem in 2014, Harvick would be in the top 10 this week. He won last year’s Kobalt 400 and finished ninth in 2013. Anything in the front half of the field that week would probably have given him an average finish that would land him about seventh or eighth, but mechanical problems are an unfortunate part of the NASCAR equation.

16. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.33
Career avg. finish: 12.2 in 11 attempts

Edwards’ only bad run in the past half-decade came last year when he lost 40 laps to crash damage and finished 42nd. It will take some time for that to age out of the three-year formula, but it does not make him a bad value since he entered the 2015 Kobalt 400 with three consecutive fifth-place results and a win.

17. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.67
Career avg. finish: 11.5 in 14 attempts

Johnson entered this race last year with momentum. He was coming off a victory at Atlanta and a three-race, top-six streak at Vegas. He crashed twice during the Kobalt 400 and finished 41st. He is coming off another win in Georgia, but fantasy owners should not expect him to get involved in an accident this week and should start him with confidence.

19. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 19.00
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 3 attempts

Dillon needs a solid run to protect his position among the top 10 in points. Vegas is not the venue he would chose to do that, however, since he has yet to crack the top 15 on this track. In three starts he has finished on the same lap as the leaders only once and that does not bode well this weekend.

21. Kurt Busch
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 23.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 22.1 in 14 attempts

Busch entered the 2010 Shelby American 400 with his first career pole in front of the hometown crowd. He crashed and limped to the checkers in 35th. That was his 10th consecutive top-10 start, but he failed to qualify as well in the past five years; last year, he did not get a chance to make the show as he sat out a suspension by NASCAR. He returned with a vengeance in 2016 and won the pole again—but one has to wonder about 2010. 



Rank
Driver
Avg.
Attempts

1. Brad Keselowski
3.67
3

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4.33
3

3. Matt Kenseth
6.67
3

4. Kyle Busch
7.50
2

5. Martin Truex Jr.
8.00
3

6. Paul Menard
8.33
3

7. Joey Logano
8.67
3

8. Kasey Kahne
9.00
3

9. Denny Hamlin
10.67
3

10. AJ Allmendinger
12.00
2

11. Jamie McMurray
13.00
3

12. Kyle Larson
13.50
2

13. Brian Vickers
14.00
2

14. Ryan Newman
16.00
3

15. Kevin Harvick
17.00
3

16. Carl Edwards
17.33
3

17. Jimmie Johnson
17.67
3

17. Greg Biffle
17.67
3

19. Austin Dillon
19.00
3

20. Aric Almirola
22.33
3

21. Kurt Busch
23.00
2

22. Clint Bowyer
23.67
3

22. Trevor Bayne
23.67
3

24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24.67
3

25. Danica Patrick
27.00
3

26. Casey Mears
27.33
3

27. David Ragan
28.33
3

28. Cole Whitt
34.00
2

28. Michael Annett
34.00
2

30. Josh Wise
37.00
3

31. Michael McDowell
38.67
3

32. Landon Cassill
40.67
3

Drivers with only one start

Brian Scott
13.00
1

Regan Smith
16.00
1

Ryan Blaney
19.00
1

Matt DiBenedetto
44.00
1
Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 14, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution flags: 2 (2 times), 2000 CarsDirect.com 400, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.9
Average in 2016: 4.5

Final Caution, last five races:
March 2015: 195 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2 (Carl Edwards)
March 2014: 222 of 267: debris
March 2013: 237 of 267: fluid
March 2012: 261 of 267: debris
March 2011: 196 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 4 (Jeff Gordon)

Most caution laps: 66, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution laps: 9, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.7
Average in 2016: 22.0

Leading the way

Most leaders: 16, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest leaders: 7, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of leaders: 10.9
Average in 2016: 8.0

Most lead changes: 28, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest lead changes: 13, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of lead changes: 20.3
Average in 2016: 28.0

Victory Lane

Last five winners at Las Vegas (starting position):
March 2015: Kevin Harvick (18)
March 2014: Brad Keselowski (2)
March 2013: Matt Kenseth (18)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (7)
March 2011: Carl Edwards (3)

Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Matt Kenseth UAW - DaimlerChrysler 400

A race at Las Vegas has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 3 times in 18 races.

Recent races won from the pole:
Kyle Busch, 2009 Shelby 427

Outside pole:
2014, Brad Keselowski Kobalt 400
2008, Carl Edwards UAW-Dodge 400

Active winners at Las Vegas:

Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Brad Keselowski: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1

First time winners at Las Vegas:
None, Jeff Burton scored his sixth win in the 1999 Las Vegas 400

All-time Winners at Las Vegas:
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth:  3
Carl Edwards: 2
Jeff Burton: 2
Brad Keselowski: 1
Kyle Busch: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
Sterling Marlin: 1
Mark Martin: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Jeff Gordon: 1

All-time winners
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 25
Jeff Gordon: 16
Dale Earnhardt: 14
Tony Stewart: 12
Matt Kenseth: 11
Richard Petty: 11
Bobby Allison: 11
Cale Yarborough: 10
Mark Martin: 10
Darrell Waltrip: 9
Carl Edwards: 9

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Las Vegas race they started:
Kevin Harvick (15)
Jimmie Johnson (14)
Jamie McMurray (13)
Carl Edwards (11)
Clint Bowyer (10)
Denny Hamlin (10)
Martin Truex Jr. (10)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Joey Logano (7)
AJ Allmendinger (6)
Trevor Bayne (5)
Danica Patrick (3)
Austin Dillon (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Ryan Blaney (1)
Brian Scott (1)

Greg Biffle blew an engine in his first start, but has been running at the end of the last 11 attempts.
Josh Wise parked early in the 2012 Kobalt Tools 400, but has been running at the end of his last three attempts.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Kasey Kahne: second (2004)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Kevin Harvick: eighth (2001)
Denny Hamlin: 10th (2006)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10th (2000)

Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first Vegas start (2004)

Current Streaks

At Las Vegas
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Ryan Newman, two top-10s
Joey Logano, two top-10s

On Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks
Brad Keselowski, 12 top-10s
Kurt Busch, eight top-10s
Carl Edwards, seven top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, three top-fives
Kyle Busch, three top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., two top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s

In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, six top-fives
Kevin Harvick, six top-10s
Kurt Busch, five top-10s
Carl Edwards, two top-fives
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s

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