From NASCAR.com.
This week’s race: Auto Club 400
Traditional Name: California 400
Other Notable Names: NAPA Auto Parts 500
Spectator sports have always struggled in Southern California. If the NFL cannot sustain enough attendance so that having a football team is not profitable, Auto Club Speedway can be forgiven some of the low attendance numbers that caused them to lose one of their two dates in 2011.
Just because there is only one race per year on this track, however, fantasy owners still have a deep data pool from which to make decisions. Michigan International Speedway and Auto Club are two of the closest comparatives on the schedule. Last year, four of a possible 10 drivers swept the top 10 on this track type and several others might have done so if not for accidents or mechanical failures during the afternoon.
10 best drivers at Auto Club
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.
1. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 1.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts
Before one discounts Busch’s average finish of 1.00 in the past three years because of last year’s absence, they need to look at his most recent four efforts on this course. Since 2011, he has not finished worse than third and has an average of 1.75. If that does not make him a favorite, nothing is likely to impress a fantasy owner.
2. Kurt Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts
Busch’s four-year average finish of 5.0 is remarkable because two of those results came with lightly-funded teams. Busch finished ninth with James Finch in 2012 and fifth with Barney Visser in 2013. His last two efforts with yet another team ended in a pair of thirds for Stewart-Haas Racing, which suggests the success is attributable to the driver.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 23 attempts
Since the past four years were mentioned for both Busch brothers, it seems appropriate to do the same for Earnhardt. His four-year average of 5.75 is helped by a pair or top-fives in 2012/2013, but he has been sliding down the order in recent events with a 12th in 2014 and a sixth last year. The 2014 effort was slightly marred by crash damage, however.
4. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 20.6 in 13 attempts
Menard enters the weekend with a current three-race, top-10 streak to his credit on this track. What makes that even more amazing is that his first 10 efforts ended in a best of 16th and an average of 24.7. Watch him provisionally and if he practices well, he could be worth starting because he has swept the top 15 in his last 10 races on two-milers.
5. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 8.8 in 18 attempts
In terms of career-average finishes, Auto Club ranks second on Edwards’ list behind the road course of Watkins Glen International. Last year while he struggled to find chemistry with his new Joe Gibbs Racing team, he failed to finish in the top 10 in California for the first time in five races. He came close though; Edwards finished 13th after qualifying 15th.
6. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 21 attempts
Newman shows remarkable consistency on nearly every track. His three-year average finish at Auto Club is marred by a 20th in 2014, but that is the only time in his last six attempts that he failed to score a top-10. Equally important, he has landed on the lead lap in each of those races.
7. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 13.50 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 2 attempts
Dillon makes an appearance in the Auto Club top-10 this week, but even if he did not he would be a good value because of the momentum he brings to the track. His worst result this season was an 11th scored at Atlanta Motor Speedway and he should finish within a couple of positions of 2016 average finish, which is 8.5.
8. Matt Kenseth (tied with Larson)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00
Career avg. finish: 10.7 in 23 attempts
Last year, Kenseth finished 31st at Auto Club—and yet he still has one of the 10-best average finishes because of a seventh in 2013 and a fourth in 2014. Notably, his bad finish did not cost him a lap and he has finished with the leaders in his past 16 attempts. He would have scored a top-10 if not for breaking an axle on a late-race pit stop.
8. Kyle Larson (tied with Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 14.0 in 2 attempts
Larson has made only two Auto Club attempts, but he nearly won in his rookie season. Finishing second that afternoon, after winning the XFINITY race the day before, raised expectations for this driver that might actually have been counter-productive. Everyone still expects him to win, but they are uncertain when.
10. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 15.00
Career avg. finish: 6.8 in 21 attempts
Johnson scored his first career victory on this track in his rookie season of 2002. Races were 500 miles then. Since that victory, he has added four more, but the latest of these came in 2010. The good news is he has never failed to finish on the lead lap in 21 Auto Club attempts.
Rank
Driver
Avg. Fin. L3Yr
Attempts
1.
Kyle Busch
1.00
2
2.
Kurt Busch
3.67
3
3.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6.67
3
4.
Paul Menard
7.00
3
5.
Carl Edwards
9.00
3
6.
Ryan Newman
11.67
3
7.
Austin Dillon
13.50
2
8. tie
Matt Kenseth
14.00
3
8. tie
Kyle Larson
14.00
2
10.
Jimmie Johnson
15.00
3
11.
Jamie McMurray
15.33
3
12.
Martin Truex Jr.
16.33
3
12.
Joey Logano
16.33
3
14.
Brad Keselowski
16.67
3
15.
Kevin Harvick
17.00
3
16.
Casey Mears
17.67
3
17.
AJ Allmendinger
19.33
3
18.
Danica Patrick
19.67
3
19.
Cole Whitt
21.00
2
20.
Kasey Kahne
22.33
3
21.
Aric Almirola
22.67
3
22.
David Ragan
23.00
3
22.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
23.00
3
24.
Greg Biffle
26.00
3
25.
Denny Hamlin
26.50
3
26.
Landon Cassill
26.67
3
27.
Clint Bowyer
27.00
3
28.
Michael Annett
28.50
2
29.
Brian Scott
31.00
2
30.
Josh Wise
37.67
3
Drivers with only one start
Brian Vickers
7.00
1
Chris Buescher
20.00
1
Trevor Bayne
29.00
1
Michael McDowell
42.00
1
Matt DiBenedetto
42.00
1
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 12, 2008 Auto Club 500
Fewest caution flags: 1, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.2
In 2016: 5.00
Final Caution, last five races:
March 2015: 204 of 209: Debris
March 2014: 199 of 206 to set up green-white-checker: 1-car spin in turn four (Clint Bowyer)
March 2013: 200 of 200: 2-car accident (Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano)
March 2012: 125 of 129: rain shortened the race
March 2011: 187 of 200: 1-car accident in turn two (Bobby Labonte)
Most caution laps: 51, 2004 Pop Secret 500
Fewest caution laps: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.4
In 2016: 27.5
Leading the way
Most leaders: 16, 2007 Sharp AQUOS 500
Fewest leaders: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of leaders: 11.5
In 2016: 7.7
Most lead changes: 35, 2014 Auto Club 400
Fewest lead changes: 9, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of lead changes: 23.0
In 2016: 18.7
Victory Lane
Last five winners (starting position):
March 2015: Brad Keselowski (eighth)
March 2014: Kyle Busch (14th)
March 2013: Kyle Busch (fourth)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (ninth)
March 2011: Kevin Harvick (24th)
Worst starting position for race winner: 31st, Matt Kenseth: 2006 Auto Club 500
A race at Auto Club has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 2 times in 26 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
August 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Pepsi 500
Active winners at Auto Club:
Jimmie Johnson: 5
Matt Kenseth: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Greg Biffle: 1
Kurt Busch: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
First time winners at Auto Club:
Kyle Busch, 2005 Sony HD 500
Jimmie Johnson, 2002 NAPA Auto Parts 500
All-time Winners at Auto Club:
Top 10
Jimmie Johnson: 5
Kyle Busch: 3
Matt Kenseth: 3
Jeff Gordon: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeremy Mayfield, Greg Biffle, and Elliott Sadler 1 each
All-time winners
Two-mile tracks (Auto Club and Michigan)
Top 10
David Pearson: 9
Cale Yarborough: 8
Bill Elliott: 7
Jeff Gordon: 6
Jimmie Johnson: 6
Matt Kenseth: 6
Mark Martin: 6
Rusty Wallace: 6
Greg Biffle: 5
Bobby Allison: 4
Kurt Busch: 4
Kyle Busch: 4
Dale Jarrett: 4
Richard Petty: 4
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Auto Club race they started:
Matt Kenseth (23)
Kurt Busch (22)
Jimmie Johnson (21)
Jamie McMurray (20)
Carl Edwards (18)
Brian Vickers (15)
Paul Menard (13)
Joey Logano (9)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Regan Smith (7)
Danica Patrick (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Trevor Bayne (2)
Austin Dillon (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Brian Scott (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Chris Buescher (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Landon Cassill parked early in his first attempt in 2010, but has been running at the end of his last five attempts.
Michael McDowell has never finished a race he started at Auto Club.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Jimmie Johnson: first (2004)
Kyle Larson: second (2014)
Matt Kenseth: third (2000)
Jamie McMurray: fifth (2003)
Carl Edwards: sixth (2004)
Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first attempt in 2004.
Ryan Newman won the pole in his first attempt in 2002.
Current Streaks
At Auto Club
Kyle Busch, four top-fives
Kurt Busch, four top-10s
Paul Menard, three top-10s
Brian Vickers, two top-10s
On Two-mile tracks
Joey Logano, eight top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-10s
Brad Keselowski, five top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., three top-10s
Matt Kenseth, two top-fives
In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, eight top-fives
Kevin Harvick, eight top-10s
Kurt Busch, seven top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., three top-10s
Austin Dillon, two top-10s
Ryan Blaney, two top-10s
Traditional Name: California 400
Other Notable Names: NAPA Auto Parts 500
Spectator sports have always struggled in Southern California. If the NFL cannot sustain enough attendance so that having a football team is not profitable, Auto Club Speedway can be forgiven some of the low attendance numbers that caused them to lose one of their two dates in 2011.
Just because there is only one race per year on this track, however, fantasy owners still have a deep data pool from which to make decisions. Michigan International Speedway and Auto Club are two of the closest comparatives on the schedule. Last year, four of a possible 10 drivers swept the top 10 on this track type and several others might have done so if not for accidents or mechanical failures during the afternoon.
10 best drivers at Auto Club
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.
1. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 1.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts
Before one discounts Busch’s average finish of 1.00 in the past three years because of last year’s absence, they need to look at his most recent four efforts on this course. Since 2011, he has not finished worse than third and has an average of 1.75. If that does not make him a favorite, nothing is likely to impress a fantasy owner.
2. Kurt Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts
Busch’s four-year average finish of 5.0 is remarkable because two of those results came with lightly-funded teams. Busch finished ninth with James Finch in 2012 and fifth with Barney Visser in 2013. His last two efforts with yet another team ended in a pair of thirds for Stewart-Haas Racing, which suggests the success is attributable to the driver.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 23 attempts
Since the past four years were mentioned for both Busch brothers, it seems appropriate to do the same for Earnhardt. His four-year average of 5.75 is helped by a pair or top-fives in 2012/2013, but he has been sliding down the order in recent events with a 12th in 2014 and a sixth last year. The 2014 effort was slightly marred by crash damage, however.
4. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 20.6 in 13 attempts
Menard enters the weekend with a current three-race, top-10 streak to his credit on this track. What makes that even more amazing is that his first 10 efforts ended in a best of 16th and an average of 24.7. Watch him provisionally and if he practices well, he could be worth starting because he has swept the top 15 in his last 10 races on two-milers.
5. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 8.8 in 18 attempts
In terms of career-average finishes, Auto Club ranks second on Edwards’ list behind the road course of Watkins Glen International. Last year while he struggled to find chemistry with his new Joe Gibbs Racing team, he failed to finish in the top 10 in California for the first time in five races. He came close though; Edwards finished 13th after qualifying 15th.
6. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 21 attempts
Newman shows remarkable consistency on nearly every track. His three-year average finish at Auto Club is marred by a 20th in 2014, but that is the only time in his last six attempts that he failed to score a top-10. Equally important, he has landed on the lead lap in each of those races.
7. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 13.50 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 2 attempts
Dillon makes an appearance in the Auto Club top-10 this week, but even if he did not he would be a good value because of the momentum he brings to the track. His worst result this season was an 11th scored at Atlanta Motor Speedway and he should finish within a couple of positions of 2016 average finish, which is 8.5.
8. Matt Kenseth (tied with Larson)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00
Career avg. finish: 10.7 in 23 attempts
Last year, Kenseth finished 31st at Auto Club—and yet he still has one of the 10-best average finishes because of a seventh in 2013 and a fourth in 2014. Notably, his bad finish did not cost him a lap and he has finished with the leaders in his past 16 attempts. He would have scored a top-10 if not for breaking an axle on a late-race pit stop.
8. Kyle Larson (tied with Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 14.0 in 2 attempts
Larson has made only two Auto Club attempts, but he nearly won in his rookie season. Finishing second that afternoon, after winning the XFINITY race the day before, raised expectations for this driver that might actually have been counter-productive. Everyone still expects him to win, but they are uncertain when.
10. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 15.00
Career avg. finish: 6.8 in 21 attempts
Johnson scored his first career victory on this track in his rookie season of 2002. Races were 500 miles then. Since that victory, he has added four more, but the latest of these came in 2010. The good news is he has never failed to finish on the lead lap in 21 Auto Club attempts.
Rank
Driver
Avg. Fin. L3Yr
Attempts
1.
Kyle Busch
1.00
2
2.
Kurt Busch
3.67
3
3.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6.67
3
4.
Paul Menard
7.00
3
5.
Carl Edwards
9.00
3
6.
Ryan Newman
11.67
3
7.
Austin Dillon
13.50
2
8. tie
Matt Kenseth
14.00
3
8. tie
Kyle Larson
14.00
2
10.
Jimmie Johnson
15.00
3
11.
Jamie McMurray
15.33
3
12.
Martin Truex Jr.
16.33
3
12.
Joey Logano
16.33
3
14.
Brad Keselowski
16.67
3
15.
Kevin Harvick
17.00
3
16.
Casey Mears
17.67
3
17.
AJ Allmendinger
19.33
3
18.
Danica Patrick
19.67
3
19.
Cole Whitt
21.00
2
20.
Kasey Kahne
22.33
3
21.
Aric Almirola
22.67
3
22.
David Ragan
23.00
3
22.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
23.00
3
24.
Greg Biffle
26.00
3
25.
Denny Hamlin
26.50
3
26.
Landon Cassill
26.67
3
27.
Clint Bowyer
27.00
3
28.
Michael Annett
28.50
2
29.
Brian Scott
31.00
2
30.
Josh Wise
37.67
3
Drivers with only one start
Brian Vickers
7.00
1
Chris Buescher
20.00
1
Trevor Bayne
29.00
1
Michael McDowell
42.00
1
Matt DiBenedetto
42.00
1
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 12, 2008 Auto Club 500
Fewest caution flags: 1, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.2
In 2016: 5.00
Final Caution, last five races:
March 2015: 204 of 209: Debris
March 2014: 199 of 206 to set up green-white-checker: 1-car spin in turn four (Clint Bowyer)
March 2013: 200 of 200: 2-car accident (Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano)
March 2012: 125 of 129: rain shortened the race
March 2011: 187 of 200: 1-car accident in turn two (Bobby Labonte)
Most caution laps: 51, 2004 Pop Secret 500
Fewest caution laps: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.4
In 2016: 27.5
Leading the way
Most leaders: 16, 2007 Sharp AQUOS 500
Fewest leaders: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of leaders: 11.5
In 2016: 7.7
Most lead changes: 35, 2014 Auto Club 400
Fewest lead changes: 9, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of lead changes: 23.0
In 2016: 18.7
Victory Lane
Last five winners (starting position):
March 2015: Brad Keselowski (eighth)
March 2014: Kyle Busch (14th)
March 2013: Kyle Busch (fourth)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (ninth)
March 2011: Kevin Harvick (24th)
Worst starting position for race winner: 31st, Matt Kenseth: 2006 Auto Club 500
A race at Auto Club has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 2 times in 26 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
August 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Pepsi 500
Active winners at Auto Club:
Jimmie Johnson: 5
Matt Kenseth: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Greg Biffle: 1
Kurt Busch: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
First time winners at Auto Club:
Kyle Busch, 2005 Sony HD 500
Jimmie Johnson, 2002 NAPA Auto Parts 500
All-time Winners at Auto Club:
Top 10
Jimmie Johnson: 5
Kyle Busch: 3
Matt Kenseth: 3
Jeff Gordon: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeremy Mayfield, Greg Biffle, and Elliott Sadler 1 each
All-time winners
Two-mile tracks (Auto Club and Michigan)
Top 10
David Pearson: 9
Cale Yarborough: 8
Bill Elliott: 7
Jeff Gordon: 6
Jimmie Johnson: 6
Matt Kenseth: 6
Mark Martin: 6
Rusty Wallace: 6
Greg Biffle: 5
Bobby Allison: 4
Kurt Busch: 4
Kyle Busch: 4
Dale Jarrett: 4
Richard Petty: 4
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Auto Club race they started:
Matt Kenseth (23)
Kurt Busch (22)
Jimmie Johnson (21)
Jamie McMurray (20)
Carl Edwards (18)
Brian Vickers (15)
Paul Menard (13)
Joey Logano (9)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Regan Smith (7)
Danica Patrick (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Trevor Bayne (2)
Austin Dillon (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Brian Scott (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Chris Buescher (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)
Landon Cassill parked early in his first attempt in 2010, but has been running at the end of his last five attempts.
Michael McDowell has never finished a race he started at Auto Club.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Jimmie Johnson: first (2004)
Kyle Larson: second (2014)
Matt Kenseth: third (2000)
Jamie McMurray: fifth (2003)
Carl Edwards: sixth (2004)
Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first attempt in 2004.
Ryan Newman won the pole in his first attempt in 2002.
Current Streaks
At Auto Club
Kyle Busch, four top-fives
Kurt Busch, four top-10s
Paul Menard, three top-10s
Brian Vickers, two top-10s
On Two-mile tracks
Joey Logano, eight top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-10s
Brad Keselowski, five top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., three top-10s
Matt Kenseth, two top-fives
In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, eight top-fives
Kevin Harvick, eight top-10s
Kurt Busch, seven top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., three top-10s
Austin Dillon, two top-10s
Ryan Blaney, two top-10s
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