Auto Club 400 Stats

From NASCAR.com.

This week’s race: Auto Club 400
Traditional Name: California 400
Other Notable Names: NAPA Auto Parts 500

Spectator sports have always struggled in Southern California. If the NFL cannot sustain enough attendance so that having a football team is not profitable, Auto Club Speedway can be forgiven some of the low attendance numbers that caused them to lose one of their two dates in 2011.

Just because there is only one race per year on this track, however, fantasy owners still have a deep data pool from which to make decisions. Michigan International Speedway and Auto Club are two of the closest comparatives on the schedule. Last year, four of a possible 10 drivers swept the top 10 on this track type and several others might have done so if not for accidents or mechanical failures during the afternoon.

10 best drivers at Auto Club

Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 1.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts

Before one discounts Busch’s average finish of 1.00 in the past three years because of last year’s absence, they need to look at his most recent four efforts on this course. Since 2011, he has not finished worse than third and has an average of 1.75. If that does not make him a favorite, nothing is likely to impress a fantasy owner.

2. Kurt Busch
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 10.1 in 17 attempts

Busch’s four-year average finish of 5.0 is remarkable because two of those results came with lightly-funded teams. Busch finished ninth with James Finch in 2012 and fifth with Barney Visser in 2013. His last two efforts with yet another team ended in a pair of thirds for Stewart-Haas Racing, which suggests the success is attributable to the driver.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 23 attempts

Since the past four years were mentioned for both Busch brothers, it seems appropriate to do the same for Earnhardt. His four-year average of 5.75 is helped by a pair or top-fives in 2012/2013, but he has been sliding down the order in recent events with a 12th in 2014 and a sixth last year. The 2014 effort was slightly marred by crash damage, however.

4. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 20.6 in 13 attempts

Menard enters the weekend with a current three-race, top-10 streak to his credit on this track. What makes that even more amazing is that his first 10 efforts ended in a best of 16th and an average of 24.7. Watch him provisionally and if he practices well, he could be worth starting because he has swept the top 15 in his last 10 races on two-milers.

5. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 8.8 in 18 attempts

In terms of career-average finishes, Auto Club ranks second on Edwards’ list behind the road course of Watkins Glen International. Last year while he struggled to find chemistry with his new Joe Gibbs Racing team, he failed to finish in the top 10 in California for the first time in five races. He came close though; Edwards finished 13th after qualifying 15th.

6. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 21 attempts

Newman shows remarkable consistency on nearly every track. His three-year average finish at Auto Club is marred by a 20th in 2014, but that is the only time in his last six attempts that he failed to score a top-10. Equally important, he has landed on the lead lap in each of those races.

7. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 13.50 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 2 attempts

Dillon makes an appearance in the Auto Club top-10 this week, but even if he did not he would be a good value because of the momentum he brings to the track. His worst result this season was an 11th scored at Atlanta Motor Speedway and he should finish within a couple of positions of 2016 average finish, which is 8.5.

8. Matt Kenseth (tied with Larson)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00
Career avg. finish: 10.7 in 23 attempts

Last year, Kenseth finished 31st at Auto Club—and yet he still has one of the 10-best average finishes because of a seventh in 2013 and a fourth in 2014. Notably, his bad finish did not cost him a lap and he has finished with the leaders in his past 16 attempts. He would have scored a top-10 if not for breaking an axle on a late-race pit stop.

8. Kyle Larson (tied with Kenseth)
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 14.00 (2 attempts)
Career avg. finish: 14.0 in 2 attempts

Larson has made only two Auto Club attempts, but he nearly won in his rookie season. Finishing second that afternoon, after winning the XFINITY race the day before, raised expectations for this driver that might actually have been counter-productive. Everyone still expects him to win, but they are uncertain when.

10. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Auto Club: 15.00
Career avg. finish: 6.8 in 21 attempts

Johnson scored his first career victory on this track in his rookie season of 2002. Races were 500 miles then. Since that victory, he has added four more, but the latest of these came in 2010. The good news is he has never failed to finish on the lead lap in 21 Auto Club attempts.



Rank
   

Driver
   

Avg. Fin. L3Yr
   

Attempts

1.
   

Kyle Busch
   

1.00
   

2

2.
   

Kurt Busch
   

3.67
   

3

3.
   

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
   

6.67
   

3

4.
   

Paul Menard
   

7.00
   

3

5.
   

Carl Edwards
   

9.00
   

3

6.
   

Ryan Newman
   

11.67
   

3

7.
   

Austin Dillon
   

13.50
   

2

8. tie
   

Matt Kenseth
   

14.00
   

3

8. tie
   

Kyle Larson
   

14.00
   

2

10.
   

Jimmie Johnson
   

15.00
   

3



11.
   

Jamie McMurray
   

15.33
   

3

12.
   

Martin Truex Jr.
   

16.33
   

3

12.
   

Joey Logano
   

16.33
   

3

14.
   

Brad Keselowski
   

16.67
   

3

15.
   

Kevin Harvick
   

17.00
   

3

16.
   

Casey Mears
   

17.67
   

3

17.
   

AJ Allmendinger
   

19.33
   

3

18.
   

Danica Patrick
   

19.67
   

3

19.
   

Cole Whitt
   

21.00
   

2

20.
   

Kasey Kahne
   

22.33
   

3

21.
   

Aric Almirola
   

22.67
   

3

22.
   

David Ragan
   

23.00
   

3

22.
   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
   

23.00
   

3

24.
   

Greg Biffle
   

26.00
   

3

25.
   

Denny Hamlin
   

26.50
   

3

26.
   

Landon Cassill
   

26.67
   

3

27.
   

Clint Bowyer
   

27.00
   

3

28.
   

Michael Annett
   

28.50
   

2

29.
   

Brian Scott
   

31.00
   

2

30.
   

Josh Wise
   

37.67
   

3

Drivers with only one start


   

Brian Vickers
   

7.00
   

1


   

Chris Buescher
   

20.00
   

1


   

Trevor Bayne
   

29.00
   

1


   

Michael McDowell
   

42.00
   

1


   

Matt DiBenedetto
   

42.00
   

1


Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 12, 2008 Auto Club 500
Fewest caution flags: 1, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.2
In 2016: 5.00

Final Caution, last five races:
March 2015: 204 of 209: Debris
March 2014: 199 of 206 to set up green-white-checker: 1-car spin in turn four (Clint Bowyer)
March 2013: 200 of 200: 2-car accident (Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano)
March 2012: 125 of 129: rain shortened the race
March 2011: 187 of 200: 1-car accident in turn two (Bobby Labonte)

Most caution laps: 51, 2004 Pop Secret 500
Fewest caution laps: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400 (rain at end of race)
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.4
In 2016: 27.5

Leading the way

Most leaders: 16, 2007 Sharp AQUOS 500
Fewest leaders: 5, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of leaders: 11.5
In 2016: 7.7

Most lead changes: 35, 2014 Auto Club 400
Fewest lead changes: 9, 2012 Auto Club 400
Average number of lead changes: 23.0
In 2016: 18.7

Victory Lane

Last five winners (starting position):
March 2015: Brad Keselowski (eighth)
March 2014: Kyle Busch (14th)
March 2013: Kyle Busch (fourth)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (ninth)
March 2011: Kevin Harvick (24th)

Worst starting position for race winner: 31st, Matt Kenseth: 2006 Auto Club 500

A race at Auto Club has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 2 times in 26 races.

Recent races won from the pole:
August 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Pepsi 500

Active winners at Auto Club:
Jimmie Johnson: 5
Matt Kenseth: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Greg Biffle: 1
Kurt Busch: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1

First time winners at Auto Club:
Kyle Busch, 2005 Sony HD 500
Jimmie Johnson, 2002 NAPA Auto Parts 500

All-time Winners at Auto Club:
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 5
Kyle Busch: 3
Matt Kenseth: 3
Jeff Gordon: 3
Tony Stewart: 2
Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeremy Mayfield, Greg Biffle, and Elliott Sadler 1 each

All-time winners
Two-mile tracks (Auto Club and Michigan)
Top 10

David Pearson: 9
Cale Yarborough: 8
Bill Elliott: 7
Jeff Gordon: 6
Jimmie Johnson: 6
Matt Kenseth: 6
Mark Martin: 6
Rusty Wallace: 6
Greg Biffle: 5
Bobby Allison: 4
Kurt Busch: 4
Kyle Busch: 4
Dale Jarrett: 4
Richard Petty: 4

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Auto Club race they started:
Matt Kenseth (23)
Kurt Busch (22)
Jimmie Johnson (21)
Jamie McMurray (20)
Carl Edwards (18)
Brian Vickers (15)
Paul Menard (13)
Joey Logano (9)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Regan Smith (7)
Danica Patrick (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Trevor Bayne (2)
Austin Dillon (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Brian Scott (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Chris Buescher (1)
Matt DiBenedetto (1)

Landon Cassill parked early in his first attempt in 2010, but has been running at the end of his last five attempts.
Michael McDowell has never finished a race he started at Auto Club.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Jimmie Johnson: first (2004)
Kyle Larson: second (2014)
Matt Kenseth: third (2000)
Jamie McMurray: fifth (2003)
Carl Edwards: sixth (2004)

Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first attempt in 2004.
Ryan Newman won the pole in his first attempt in 2002.

Current Streaks

At Auto Club
Kyle Busch, four top-fives
Kurt Busch, four top-10s
Paul Menard, three top-10s
Brian Vickers, two top-10s

On Two-mile tracks
Joey Logano, eight top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-10s
Brad Keselowski, five top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., three top-10s
Matt Kenseth, two top-fives

In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, eight top-fives
Kevin Harvick, eight top-10s
Kurt Busch, seven top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., three top-10s
Austin Dillon, two top-10s
Ryan Blaney, two top-10s

Who is a wiser up pick for Fontana, Kyle Busch or Paul Menard?

By @GucciardoJoey

This weekend, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Fontana for the final race of the 2016 "West Coast Swing."

Auto Club Speedway (which is located in Fontana) cabn be rough to make Sprint Cup fantasy team picks because it is an intermediate track where tons of drivers like Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Jimmie Johnson, and many others perform well at.

But when it comes to average finish at the track since 2014, Kyle Busch has the best one with one of first place, even though he has only ran one race at the track since then because he missed the 2015 race at the track due to an injury. Kyle's older brother Kurt Busch is second with one of 3rd in two races at the track since 2014.

But when you keep track of who has the best average finish at all intermediate tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit since 2014, Paul Menard has the best average finish witgh one of 6.8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is second with one of 7.0.

Paul Menard could be seen as a wise pick for this weekend because of the fact that he can run well at intermediate tracjks, but because Kyle usually runs more in contention in many races than Menard, and has won at Auto Club while Menard has not, Kyle Busch is more of a wise pick for Fontana than Menard.

Good Sam 500 Stats

From NASCAR.com.

This week’s race: Good Sam 500 
Traditional Name: None
Other Notable Names: CampingWorld.com 500, The Profit on CNBC 500, Subway Fresh Fit 500

When Phoenix ran its inaugural race in 1988, it was the first time a new track had been added to the circuit in quite some while. Before that, Pocono Raceway had been the most recent new venue and its first Cup race was in 1974. It was fitting that a first-time winner took the checkered flag in the Checker 500, which was run that fall.

Phoenix began hosting two races per year in 2005 and with that, the data pool deepened. Along with New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Martinsville Speedway, and Richmond International Raceway, these courses are collectively known as the short, flat tracks and they host eight events per season—or 22 percent of the schedule. Fantasy owners will find a little assist from the 2.5-mile flat tracks of Pocono and Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but the closest comparative is New Hampshire. Any driver who runs strong there, can typically be counted on to run well at Phoenix as well.

10 best drivers at Phoenix 

Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Kevin Harvick 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 3.17
Career avg. finish: 10.6 in 26 attempts

Rarely has a driver shown as much dominance on a track than Harvick in recent seasons. His last five attempts produced four consecutive wins and a second-place finish. Before that, he had a 13th in 2013 that barely hurts his average and two more top-two results in 2012. He will be considered a favorite by most this week, but so far he seems to have struggled in practice and qualified only 18th.

2. Brad Keselowski 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 6.17
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 13 attempts

Keselowski cannot rival Harvick in terms of sheer power, but he has just as much consistency at Phoenix. His last eight attempts have resulted in finishes of 11th or better. Keselowski should occupy the second position on most lineups unless he is too expensive in salary cap games.

3. Joey Logano 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 13.7 in 14 attempts

If the top of the order this week looks a lot like the Chase grid from 2015, there is a reason. No one makes the Chase without being strong on the short, flat tracks and similarly-configured, 1.5-mile courses—unless they happen to win on the wild cards. Logano’s last five races at Phoenix have been a sweep of the top five with an average of sixth.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 10.50
Career avg. finish: 9.5 in 13 attempts

Junior makes his way into the top five based on consistency. Five of his last six attempts on this track ended in top-10s and all but one of those was a top-five. In fact, he would be much higher on the list if not for an accident in last year’s edition of this race.

5. Jimmie Johnson 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 11.00
Career avg. finish: 7.7 in 25 attempts

Johnson was once the dominant driver at Phoenix. From fall 2006 through spring 2011, he swept the top five in 10 races and amassed his four wins. He has faltered a little lately and his three-year average is marred by an accident in fall 2014, but he is strong enough overall to make the top five.

6. Carl Edwards 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 11.67
Career avg. finish: 12.3 in 23 attempts

Edwards snapped two long winless streaks at Phoenix so he has fond memories of this place. His latest win came in 2013, however, and he has only one top-10 in the five races that followed. The new low down force package could make the difference in him scoring a top-10 and fantasy owners will want to watch him closely in practice and qualification.

7. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 12.20 (five starts)
Career avg. finish: 16.6 in 26 attempts

Phoenix was one of two races Kenseth sat out last fall after intentionally wrecking Logano, but it might not have made much of a difference to fantasy owners. His spring result on this track was a modest 16th and he has been trending down for a while. This is not where he wants to come in the midst of his current streak of bad luck.

8. Jamie McMurray 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 13.50
Career avg. finish: 19.8 in 25 attempts

McMurray made his way into the top 16 last week and with one of the 10-best, three-year averages he might be able to stay there. Last fall was the first time in six races that he failed to finish on the lead lap and that might have been different if the Quicken Loans 500 had gone the complete distance.

9. Ryan Newman 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 13.67
Career avg. finish: 17.1 in 27 attempts

Newman is probably better evaluated by his tenure with Richard Childress Racing at Phoenix than the two races that preceded it. His last four attempts have all ended in results of 11th or better with an average of eighth. At his salary cap level, that makes him one of this week’s best bargains.

10. Kasey Kahne 
Last six races average finish at Phoenix: 13.83
Career avg. finish: 17.7 in 23 attempts

Kahne may finally have turned a corner after scoring a top-10 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last week. In three starts this year, he has been uneven though and it might be a little soon to overburden his bandwagon. He is barely hanging onto the top 10 in three-year average at this track, and that also points to a lack of consistency. 



Rank
Driver
Avg. Fin. L3Yr
Attempts
1.
Kevin Harvick
3.17
6
2.
Brad Keselowski
6.17
6
3.
Joey Logano
9.33
6
4.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10.50
6
5.
Jimmie Johnson
11.00
6
6.
Carl Edwards
11.67
6
7.
Matt Kenseth
12.20
5
8.
Jamie McMurray
13.50
6
9.
Ryan Newman
13.67
6
10.
Kasey Kahne
13.83
6

11.
Denny Hamlin
14.33
6
12.
Kurt Busch
15.00
6
13.
Kyle Busch
15.40
5
14.
Aric Almirola
16.00
6
15.
Kyle Larson
16.00
4
16.
Martin Truex Jr.
16.50
6
17.
Greg Biffle
18.00
6
18.
Paul Menard
18.17
6
19.
AJ Allmendinger
18.80
5
20.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
19.33
6
21.
Clint Bowyer
21.00
6
22.
Casey Mears
22.00
6
23.
Austin Dillon
24.25
4
24.
David Ragan
27.50
6
25.
Brian Vickers
28.33
3
26.
Danica Patrick
28.67
6
27.
Trevor Bayne
31.00
2
28.
Matt DiBenedetto
31.50
2
29.
Michael McDowell
32.00
3
30.
Cole Whitt
33.40
5
31.
Michael Annett
33.50
4
32.
Landon Cassill
34.17
6
33.
Joey Gase
37.50
2
34.
Josh Wise
38.40
5
Drivers with only one start

Ty Dillon
27.00
1

Brian Scott
32.00
1


Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 12, 2014 Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500
Fewest caution flags: 2, 1999 Checker Auto Parts / Dura Lube 500, 2015 Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 (rain-shortened to 219 laps)
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.3
In 2016: 5.0

Final Caution, last five races on this track:
November 2015: 197 of 219: 1-car accident in turn 3 (Joey Gase)
March 2015: lap 297 of 312: 2-car accident in turn 4 (Danica Patrick and David Ragan—in a relationship at the time)
November 2014: 298 of 312: 2-car accident in turn 4 (Reed Sorenson and Mike Wallace)
March 2014: 298 of 312: (fluid from Kurt Busch)
November 2013: 287 of 312: debris

Most caution laps: 66, 2003 Checker Auto Parts 500
Fewest caution laps: 10, 1999 Checker Auto Parts / Dura Lube 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 39.5
In 2016: 26.7

Leading the way

Most leaders: 15, 2012 Subway Fresh Fit 500
Fewest leaders: 2, 1990 Checker 500
Average number of leaders: 8.1
In 2016: 9.5

Most lead changes: 28, 2011 Subway Fresh Fit 500
Fewest lead changes: 1, 1990 Checker 500
Average number of lead changes: 13.6
In 2016: 24.5

Victory Lane

Last five winners (starting position):
November 2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (third)
March 2015: Kevin Harvick (pole)
November 2014: Kevin Harvick (third)
March 2014: Kevin Harvick (13th)
November 2013: Kevin Harvick (ninth)

Worst starting position for race winner: 29th, Ricky Rudd: 1995 Dura Lube 500

A race at Phoenix has been won by the pole sitter 5 times and from the front row 8 times in 39 races.

Recent races won from the pole:
March 2015: Kevin Harvick, CampingWorld.com 500
November 2010: Carl Edwards, Kobalt Tools 500
April 2009: Mark Martin, Subway Fresh Fit 500
November 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 by Pennzoil
April 2007: Jeff Gordon, Subway Fresh Fit 500

Active winners at Phoenix:
Kevin Harvick: 7
Jimmie Johnson: 4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Jeff Gordon: 2
Kurt Busch: 1
Kyle Busch: 1
Denny Hamlin: 1
Kasey Kahne: 1
Matt Kenseth: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
Tony Stewart: 1

First time winners at Phoenix:
Bobby Hamilton, 1996 Dura Lube 500
Alan Kulwicki, 1988 Checker 500

All-time Winners at Phoenix:
Top 10

Kevin Harvick: 7
Jimmie Johnson: 4
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 3
Davey Allison: 2
Jeff Burton: 2
Jeff Gordon: 2
Mark Martin: 2
Carl Edwards: 2
Bill Elliott, Bobby Hamilton Sr., Dale Earnhardt Sr., Kyle Busch, Dale Jarrett, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Alan Kulwicki, Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Ricky Rudd, and Kasey Kahne: 1 each

All-time winners
Short, flat tracks (Phoenix, New Hampshire, Martinsville, and Richmond)
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 18
Jeff Gordon: 16
Richard Petty: 15
Rusty Wallace: 15
Kevin Harvick: 12
Darrell Waltrip: 11
Denny Hamlin: 10
Tony Stewart: 10
Dale Earnhardt Sr.: 9
Jeff Burton: 8
Kurt Busch: 8

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Phoenix race they started:
Kevin Harvick (26)
Denny Hamlin (21)
Paul Menard (18)
AJ Allmendinger (13)
Aric Almirola (10)
Michael Annett (4)
Austin Dillon (4)
Kyle Larson (4)
Matt DiBenedetto (2)
Ty Dillon (1)
Brian Scott (1)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had been running at the end of five straight races until he crashed out of last fall’s.
Trevor Bayne crashed out of his first attempt, but has been running at the end of the last two.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Tony Stewart: first (1999)
Kasey Kahne: fifth (2004)
Kyle Busch: eighth (2005), he won in his second attempt.

Current Streaks

At Phoenix
Kevin Harvick, five top-twos
Joey Logano, five top-10s
Brad Keselowski, four top-10s
Kurt Busch, three top-10s

On Short, flat tracks 
Denny Hamlin, four top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-fives
Dale Earnhardt Jr., two top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two top-10s

In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, seven top-fives
Kevin Harvick, seven top-10s
Kurt Busch, six top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, two top-fives
Brad Keselowski, two top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., two top-10s

Kobalt 400 Stats

From NASCAR.com.

This week’s race: Kobalt 400
Traditional Name: Las Vegas 400
Other Notable Names: Shelby 427, UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400, CarsDirect.com 400

Las Vegas has been on the NASCAR calendar since 1998, but none of the drivers entered this week have been on the circuit that long. Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have the most experience with 16 of the 18 events. Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick have 15 races under their belts, so fantasy players who value experience will want to watch them closely on Saturday.

Experience counts. Both Earnhardt and Kenseth are ranked among the top five this week. Notably, Newman and Harvick are not in the top 10, however, and there are some fresh faces counted among the leaders including Paul Menard, AJ Allmendinger, and Kasey Kahne—who has plenty of laps around the NASCAR circuit, but has not been the strongest driver in the field in recent seasons.

Progressive banking was added to the track in 2006, so a decade has passed since the racers had a cushion on which to lean.

In the past 10 races, several drivers have recorded seven top-15s and a few more have six. Only Earnhardt has eight results that strong and all but one of those was a top-10. Depending on the game, the No. 88 could be a great pick, but only if he is priced right. He has only three top-fives on the progressive banking and is beaten in that regard by Jimmie Johnson, Kenseth, and Carl Edwards.

10 best drivers at Las Vegas

Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Brad Keselowski
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 3.67
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 7 attempts

Keselowski’s first four races at Vegas were terrible. He finished outside the top 25 from 2009 through 2015 and then was awarded the pole in 2013 through NASCAR’s current rules. That was the first time he started among the top 10 and it was contributed to his third-place finish. Keselowski won the next year and finished seventh in 2015, which combines for a stellar three-year average.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 4.33
Career avg. finish: 14.1 in 16 attempts

Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2009, Earnhardt has been almost perfect at Las Vegas. He finished in the top 10 seven times in his last eight attempts. His last two were top-fives and he might have earned his first career victory on this track in 2014 if not for the fact that he ran out of gas on the final lap of the Kobalt 400.

3. Matt Kenseth
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 11.4 in 16 attempts

Kenseth takes Vegas in waves. He won back-to-back races on this track in 2003/2004, scored three more top-10s and then struggled in four of the next five races. He won his third Vegas race in 2013 and has scored a pair of top-10s in the past two events. With a 10th in 2014 and a ninth last year, both were on the high side, however.

4. Kyle Busch
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 7.50 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 14.4 in 11 attempts

Neither Busch brother was in the field last year for their hometown race and Kyle’s two-year average is far from a mark that makes him a must-have. In 2013 he scored a top-five; last year he missed the top 10 by a narrow margin. His past three races also includes a 23rd in 2012, and that would make him a risky proposition if not for the momentum he currently has this season.

5. Martin Truex Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.00
Career avg. finish: 14.6 in 10 attempts

Truex has earned top-10s in every other Vegas race for the past five years. In the last three events, he swept the top 15 and his average is helped by a second last year to Harvick. The driver of the No. 78 is starting the season with as much momentum as he had in 2015 and that is a good omen.

6. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.33
Career avg. finish: 16.7 in 9 attempts

Menard has not finished worse than 12th since he climbed behind the wheel of the No. 27. In those five races, he has been running on the lead lap at the end of every event and finished better than he started, so his qualification effort of 15th this week suggests he will score a top-15 in the Kobalt 400.

7. Joey Logano
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 12.0 in 7 attempts

Logano finished 12th or better in his last three Vegas races, but his real strength came in the past two. He won the pole in 2014 and finished fourth. Last year, he rolled off the grid from the outside of the front row and finished 10th. If he and Keselowski can figure out the low down force package, they both should contend for top-10s again.

8. Kasey Kahne
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 13.8 in 12 attempts

While he has struggled elsewhere, Kahne has been relatively solid at Vegas in the past four year. He won the pole in 2012, finished second the following year, and was eighth in 2014. Last year, he slipped to 17th, however, but that was partly because of crash damage that cost him a lap.

9. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 10.67
Career avg. finish: 12.2 in 10 attempts

Drivers can only get strong results if they are around at the end of a race. Hamlin has been running at the checkers in all 10 events he started at Vegas and was on the lead lap in all but one of those. Still, he has not always been in the very forefront of the field and has only one top-10 in his last four attempts. That was a fifth in last year’s edition of this race.

10. AJ Allmendinger            
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 12.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 28.3 in 8 attempts

Allmendinger sat out the 2013 season at Vegas and that is probably part of the reason he landed inside the top 10 this week. He has only two results in the past three years and one of these was a sixth last year that skews his average high. His most recent three attempts netted an average of 20.33 and that would land him in the bottom third of the grid.

Others of Note

15. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.00
Career avg. finish: 13.8 in 15 attempts

If not for a hub problem in 2014, Harvick would be in the top 10 this week. He won last year’s Kobalt 400 and finished ninth in 2013. Anything in the front half of the field that week would probably have given him an average finish that would land him about seventh or eighth, but mechanical problems are an unfortunate part of the NASCAR equation.

16. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.33
Career avg. finish: 12.2 in 11 attempts

Edwards’ only bad run in the past half-decade came last year when he lost 40 laps to crash damage and finished 42nd. It will take some time for that to age out of the three-year formula, but it does not make him a bad value since he entered the 2015 Kobalt 400 with three consecutive fifth-place results and a win.

17. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 17.67
Career avg. finish: 11.5 in 14 attempts

Johnson entered this race last year with momentum. He was coming off a victory at Atlanta and a three-race, top-six streak at Vegas. He crashed twice during the Kobalt 400 and finished 41st. He is coming off another win in Georgia, but fantasy owners should not expect him to get involved in an accident this week and should start him with confidence.

19. Austin Dillon
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 19.00
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 3 attempts

Dillon needs a solid run to protect his position among the top 10 in points. Vegas is not the venue he would chose to do that, however, since he has yet to crack the top 15 on this track. In three starts he has finished on the same lap as the leaders only once and that does not bode well this weekend.

21. Kurt Busch
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 23.00 (2 starts)
Career avg. finish: 22.1 in 14 attempts

Busch entered the 2010 Shelby American 400 with his first career pole in front of the hometown crowd. He crashed and limped to the checkers in 35th. That was his 10th consecutive top-10 start, but he failed to qualify as well in the past five years; last year, he did not get a chance to make the show as he sat out a suspension by NASCAR. He returned with a vengeance in 2016 and won the pole again—but one has to wonder about 2010. 



Rank
Driver
Avg.
Attempts

1. Brad Keselowski
3.67
3

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4.33
3

3. Matt Kenseth
6.67
3

4. Kyle Busch
7.50
2

5. Martin Truex Jr.
8.00
3

6. Paul Menard
8.33
3

7. Joey Logano
8.67
3

8. Kasey Kahne
9.00
3

9. Denny Hamlin
10.67
3

10. AJ Allmendinger
12.00
2

11. Jamie McMurray
13.00
3

12. Kyle Larson
13.50
2

13. Brian Vickers
14.00
2

14. Ryan Newman
16.00
3

15. Kevin Harvick
17.00
3

16. Carl Edwards
17.33
3

17. Jimmie Johnson
17.67
3

17. Greg Biffle
17.67
3

19. Austin Dillon
19.00
3

20. Aric Almirola
22.33
3

21. Kurt Busch
23.00
2

22. Clint Bowyer
23.67
3

22. Trevor Bayne
23.67
3

24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24.67
3

25. Danica Patrick
27.00
3

26. Casey Mears
27.33
3

27. David Ragan
28.33
3

28. Cole Whitt
34.00
2

28. Michael Annett
34.00
2

30. Josh Wise
37.00
3

31. Michael McDowell
38.67
3

32. Landon Cassill
40.67
3

Drivers with only one start

Brian Scott
13.00
1

Regan Smith
16.00
1

Ryan Blaney
19.00
1

Matt DiBenedetto
44.00
1
Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 14, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution flags: 2 (2 times), 2000 CarsDirect.com 400, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.9
Average in 2016: 4.5

Final Caution, last five races:
March 2015: 195 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 2 (Carl Edwards)
March 2014: 222 of 267: debris
March 2013: 237 of 267: fluid
March 2012: 261 of 267: debris
March 2011: 196 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 4 (Jeff Gordon)

Most caution laps: 66, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution laps: 9, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.7
Average in 2016: 22.0

Leading the way

Most leaders: 16, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest leaders: 7, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of leaders: 10.9
Average in 2016: 8.0

Most lead changes: 28, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest lead changes: 13, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of lead changes: 20.3
Average in 2016: 28.0

Victory Lane

Last five winners at Las Vegas (starting position):
March 2015: Kevin Harvick (18)
March 2014: Brad Keselowski (2)
March 2013: Matt Kenseth (18)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (7)
March 2011: Carl Edwards (3)

Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Matt Kenseth UAW - DaimlerChrysler 400

A race at Las Vegas has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 3 times in 18 races.

Recent races won from the pole:
Kyle Busch, 2009 Shelby 427

Outside pole:
2014, Brad Keselowski Kobalt 400
2008, Carl Edwards UAW-Dodge 400

Active winners at Las Vegas:

Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Brad Keselowski: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1

First time winners at Las Vegas:
None, Jeff Burton scored his sixth win in the 1999 Las Vegas 400

All-time Winners at Las Vegas:
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth:  3
Carl Edwards: 2
Jeff Burton: 2
Brad Keselowski: 1
Kyle Busch: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
Sterling Marlin: 1
Mark Martin: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Jeff Gordon: 1

All-time winners
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Top 10

Jimmie Johnson: 25
Jeff Gordon: 16
Dale Earnhardt: 14
Tony Stewart: 12
Matt Kenseth: 11
Richard Petty: 11
Bobby Allison: 11
Cale Yarborough: 10
Mark Martin: 10
Darrell Waltrip: 9
Carl Edwards: 9

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Las Vegas race they started:
Kevin Harvick (15)
Jimmie Johnson (14)
Jamie McMurray (13)
Carl Edwards (11)
Clint Bowyer (10)
Denny Hamlin (10)
Martin Truex Jr. (10)
Brad Keselowski (7)
Joey Logano (7)
AJ Allmendinger (6)
Trevor Bayne (5)
Danica Patrick (3)
Austin Dillon (3)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3)
Michael Annett (2)
Kyle Larson (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Ryan Blaney (1)
Brian Scott (1)

Greg Biffle blew an engine in his first start, but has been running at the end of the last 11 attempts.
Josh Wise parked early in the 2012 Kobalt Tools 400, but has been running at the end of his last three attempts.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Kasey Kahne: second (2004)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Kevin Harvick: eighth (2001)
Denny Hamlin: 10th (2006)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10th (2000)

Kasey Kahne won the pole in his first Vegas start (2004)

Current Streaks

At Las Vegas
Dale Earnhardt Jr., five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, three top-10s
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Ryan Newman, two top-10s
Joey Logano, two top-10s

On Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks
Brad Keselowski, 12 top-10s
Kurt Busch, eight top-10s
Carl Edwards, seven top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, three top-fives
Kyle Busch, three top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two top-10s
Dale Earnhardt Jr., two top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s

In 2015/2016
Kyle Busch, six top-fives
Kevin Harvick, six top-10s
Kurt Busch, five top-10s
Carl Edwards, two top-fives
Martin Truex Jr., two top-10s