Look Ahead: Only 31 days to go

via RotoWorld/Anthony Ballantoni

During the off-season, Look Ahead gives a snapshot of where drivers finished in 2016 and what’s ahead for them in 2017. We will look at drivers who finished in the top 40 in the Sprint Cup Series (now the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) in 2017) point standings and those who ended the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series standings in the top 30 in points. Since many teams have yet to firm up their 2017 plans, follow Rotoworld NASCAR Headlines for the latest updates.

With 31 days to go until the 2017 MENCS season-opening Daytona 500, here are a few of the driver recaps followed by a tentative list of 2017 Cup driver/team lineups.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (NSCS):
2016: Brad Keselowski – Team Penske No. 2 Ford Fusion - In 36 races, the Rochester Hills, MN driver led 549 laps, scored four wins, one pole, 16 top-5s, 22 top-10s, had a 9.6 average start, an 11.5 average finish, earned 2,267 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. Keselowski made it through the Round of 16 races but was eliminated after the Round of 12 events and closed out the season 12th in the standings. He also entered 15 XFINITY Series races in Penske’s No. 22 Mustang; one pole, five top-5s, 12 top-10s, best finish 2nd at Fort Worth.
Best 2016 NSCS start: Pole – Pocono 6/6
Best finishes: Win – Las Vegas 3/6, Talladega 5/1, Daytona 7/2 and Kentucky 7/9
Last career NSCS win: Kentucky Speedway on July 9, 2016.
2017 MENCS: Keselowski is contracted thru 2017 to drive the No. 2 Ford for Team Penske. Crew chief Paul Wolfe is also under contract to the end of this season. All primary sponsors, including Miller Lite (24 races), will return as well.

2016: Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota Camry – In 36 races, the Mayetta, NJ driver led a series best 1,809 laps, scored four wins, five poles, eight top-5s, 17 top-10s, had a 9.1 average start, a 13.9 average finish, earned 2,271 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. He made it through the Round of 16 races but was eliminated after the Round of 12 events and closed out the season 11th in the standings. Truex was named the 2016 Eastern Motorsport Press Association National Driver of the Year. This is the second time he was the recipient of the EMPA Al Holbert Memorial National Driver of the Year trophy. He received the prestigious hardware after winning the 2004 XFINITY Series championship.
Best 2016 NSCS starts: Pole – Kansas 5/7, Charlotte 5/29, Pocono 8/1, Talladega 10/23 and Martinsville 10/30
Best 2016 finishes: Win – Charlotte 5/29, Darlington 9/4, Chicago 9/18 and Dover 10/2
Last career NSCS win: Dover International Speedway on October 2, 2016.
2017 MENCS: Truex signed a two-year contract to remain at FRR driving the No. 78 Toyota thru 2018. Cole Pearn will return as crew chief for the team. Furniture Row and Denver Mattress return as sponsors. Bass Pro Shops, 5-Hour Energy, Auto-Owners Insurance and WIX Filters signed on as additional primary sponsors.

2016: Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet SS - In 36 races, the Dawsonville, GA driver led 358 laps, scored two poles, 10 top-5s, 17 top-10s, had an11.3 average start, a 14.6 average finish, earned 2,285 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. Elliott made it through the Round of 16 races but was eliminated after the Round of 12 events and closed out the season 10th in the standings. JR Motorsports fielded the Nos. 5 and 88 Camaros for Elliott in six XFINITY Series races. He won the season opener at Daytona and averaged a 5.3 finish for all six races. Elliott drove Carlos Contreras’ No. 71 Chevrolet Silverado in the Camping World Truck race at Martinsville; started on the pole, led 109 laps and finished the 200-lap event in second place.
Best 2016 NSCS starts: Pole – Daytona 2/21 and Talladega 5/1
Best 2016 finishes: 2nd – Michigan 6/12 and Michigan 8/28
Last career NSCS win: None so far.
2017 MENCS: Elliott is contracted through 2018 in the Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet SS. Crew chief Alan Gustafson and all primary sponsors will return as well. Hooters signed up as primary sponsor for two races.

2016: Kyle Larson – Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet SS - In 36 races, the Elk Grove, CA driver led 379 laps, scored one win, 10 top-5s, 15 top-10s, had a 15.6 average start, a 14.7 average finish, earned 2,228 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. After the Round of 16 races, Larson was eliminated and closed out the season ninth in the standings. CGR also put him in the No. 42 Camaro for 16 XFINITY Series races. For those events, Larson averaged a 5.8 start coupled with a 6.1 average finish. He led 651 laps of the 2,288 run and won the Pocono and Fort Worth races. Larson also drove three Camping World Truck Series races in GMS Racing’s No. 24 Chevrolet Silverado; won the Eldora dirt race and finished fourth at Martinsville and Homestead-Miami.
Best 2016 NSCS starts: 2nd – Watkins Glen 8/7, Richmond 9/10 and Phoenix 11/13
Best 2016 finish: Win – Michigan 8/28
Last career NSCS win: Michigan International Speedway on August 28, 2016.
2017 MENCS: Larson is signed thru 2017 to return to Ganassi’s No. 42 Chevy. Sponsorship continues and it appears crew chief Chad Johnston will return as well. Larson will also ride-share the No. 42 Camaro in the XFINITY Series with former truck series driver, Tyler Reddick. Reddick is scheduled to run 18 to 22 races and Larson will drive the rest.

NASCAR XFINITY Series (NXS):
2016: Ryan Sieg – RSS Racing No. 39 Chevrolet Camaro - In 33 races, the Tucker, GA driver led two laps, scored one top-5, three top-10s, had an 18.7 average start, a 17.8 average finish, earned 2,171 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. After the Round of 12 races, Sieg was eliminated and closed out the season ninth in the standings.
Best 2016 NXS start: 6th – Dover 5/14
Best 2016 finish: 3rd – Daytona 7/1
Last career NXS win: None so far.
2017: RSS Racing is again planning a full season with owner/driver Ryan Sieg behind the wheel of the No. 39 Chevrolet Camaro. Crew chief Kevin Starland will return to the team. The team is still searching for sponsorship.

2016: Brennan Poole – Chip Ganassi Racing No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro – In 33 races, the Woodlands, TX driver led 11 laps, scored four top-5s, 17 top-10s, had a 13.1 average start, a 12.4 average finish, earned 2,192 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. After the Round of 12 races, Poole was eliminated and closed out the season eighth in the standings.
Best 2016 NXS starts: 5th – Atlanta 2/27 and Texas 4/8
Best 2016 finishes: 3rd – Talladega 4/30 and Road America 8/27
Last career NXS win: None so far.
2017: Poole will return for another full season driving Chip Ganassi Racing’s No. 48 Camaro. Crew chief Chad Norris and primary sponsor DC Solar will return as well.

2016: Blake Koch – Kaulig Racing No. 11 Chevrolet Camaro – In 33 races, the W. Palm Beach, FL driver led 16 laps, scored five top-10s, had a 13.2 average start, a 16.9 average finish, earned 2,200 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. After the Round of 12 races, Koch was eliminated and closed out the season seventh in the standings.
Best 2016 NXS start: 4th – Phoenix 11/12
Best 2016 finishes: 8th – Richmond 4/23, Bristol 8/19 and Phoenix 11/12
Last career NXS win: None so far.
2017: Koch is returning full-time in Kaulig Racing’s No. 11 Chevy Camaro. Chris Rice returns as crew chief as well as primary sponsor Leaf Filter Gutter Protection.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS):
2016: Tyler Reddick – Brad Keselowski Racing No. 29 Ford F-150 - In 23 races, the Corning, CA driver led 293 laps, scored one win, one pole, eight top-5s, 12 top-10s, had an 8.3 average start, an 11.4 average finish, earned 511 points and closed out the season ninth in the standings.
Best 2016 NCWTS start: Pole – Bristol 8/17
Best 2016 finish: Win – Las Vegas 10/1
Last career NCWTS win: Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 1, 2016.
2017: Reddick parted ways with BKR at the end of 2016 and moved up to the XFINITY Series. Chip Ganassi Racing announced that Reddick will pilot the No. 42 Chevrolet Camaro in multiple NXS races (18 to 22). He will share the car with Cup regular Kyle Larson. Mike Shiplett will continue to lead the team as crew chief.

2016: John Hunter Nemechek – NEMCO Motorsports No. 8 Chevrolet Silverado – In 23 races, the Mooresville, NC driver led 99 laps, scored two wins, one pole, five top-5s, 11 top-10s, had a 13.1 average start, a 12.1 average finish, earned 2,133 points and made the 2016 NCWTS Chase. After the Round of 8 races, he was eliminated and closed out the season eighth in the standings.
Best 2016 NCWTS start: Pole – Iowa 6/18
Best 2016 finishes: Win – Atlanta 2/27 and CTMP 9/4
Last career NCWTS win: Canadian Tire Motorsports Park on September 4, 2016.
2017: Nemechek’s family-owned NEMCO Motorsports will field the No. 8 Chevrolet Silverado full-time again for John Hunter Nemechek. Crew chief Gere Kennon and primary sponsor Fire Alarm Services will return as well.

2016: Ben Kennedy – Red Horse Racing No. 11 Toyota Tundra (3 races) and GMS Racing No. 33 Chevrolet Silverado (20 races) - In 23 races, the Daytona Beach, FL driver led 54 laps, scored one win, four top-5s, 10 top-10s, had a 12.3 average start, an 11.5 average finish, earned 2,162 points and made the 2016 NCWTS Chase. Kennedy made it through the Round of 8 races but was eliminated after the Round of 6 events and closed out the season seventh in the standings. He also made one XFINITY Series start driving Richard Childress Racing’s No. 2 Chevrolet Camaro at Iowa Speedway; started 6th, finished 10th.
Best 2016 NCWTS starts: 3rd – Charlotte 5/21 and Iowa 6/18
Best 2016 finish: Win – Bristol 8/17
Last career NCWTS win: Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2016.
2017: GMS Racing has announced Kaz Grala as driver of the No. 33 Silverado for this coming season. No firm word at this time on Ben Kennedy’s plans for 2017 in any series.

2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Lineup full-time teams
Car	Driver	Sponsor	Make	Owner
1	Jamie McMurray	Cessna/McDonald’s/GearWrench	Chevrolet	Chip Ganassi Racing
2	Brad Keselowski	Miller Lite/Alliance Truck Parts/Wurth/Autotrader	Ford	Team Penske
3	Austin Dillon	Dow//Bass Pro Shops/American Ethanol/AAA	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
4	Kevin Harvick	Busch Beer/Jimmie Johns/Mobil 1	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
5	Kasey Kahne	Farmers Insurance/Great Clips/LiftMaster/Quicken Loans/ Panasonic/Mountain Dew/AARP/UniFirst	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
6	Trevor Bayne	AdvoCare/Liberty National/ Performance Plus	Ford	Roush Fenway Racing
10	Danica Patrick	Nature’s Bakery/Aspen Dental/ TaxACT/Mobil 1/Code 3 Assoc.	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
11	Denny Hamlin	FedEx/Sport Clips	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
13	Ty Dillon *	Geico	Chevrolet	Germain Racing
14	Clint Bowyer	Haas Automation/Mobil 1/Rush Truck Centers	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
17	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/SunnyD	Ford	Roush Fenway Racing
18	Kyle Busch	M&M’s/Skittles/Interstate Batteries	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
19	Daniel Suarez *	Arris/Stanley/Sport Clips/Subway	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
20	Matt Kenseth	DeWalt	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
21	Ryan Blaney	Motorcraft/Quick Lane/SKF	Ford	Wood Brothers Racing
22	Joey Logano	Shell-Pennzoil/Autotrader/AAA	Ford	Team Penske
23	Joey Gase	Best Home Furnishings (3 races)	Toyota	BK Racing
23	Gray Gaulding *	? (33 races)	Toyota	BK Racing
24	Chase Elliott	NAPA Auto Parts/3M/Kelley Blue Book/Mountain Dew/SunEnergy1/Hooters	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
27	Paul Menard	Menards	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
31	Ryan Newman	Caterpillar/Grainger	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
32	Matt DiBenedetto	Can-Am/Keen Parts/Visone RV	Ford	GoFAS Racing
33	?	???	Chevrolet	Circle Sport w/TMG
34	Landon Cassill	Love’s Travel Stops/Taco Bell	Ford	Front Row Motorsports
37	Chris Buescher	Scott Products/Cottonelle Mega	Chevrolet	JTG Daugherty Racing
38	David Ragan	Taco Bell	Ford	Front Row Motorsports
41	Kurt Busch	Monster Energy/Haas Automation/Mobil 1	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
42	Kyle Larson	Target/CreditOne	Chevrolet	Chip Ganassi Racing
43	Aric Almirola	Smithfield Foods/U.S. Air Force/Fresh From Florida	Ford	Richard Petty Motorsports
47	AJ Allmendinger	Kroger/Scott Products/ Kingsford Charcoal/Bush’s Baked Beans	Chevrolet	JTG Daugherty Racing
48	Jimmie Johnson	Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
77	Erik Jones *	5-Hour Energy	Toyota	Furniture Row Racing
78	Martin Truex Jr.	Furniture Row/Denver Mattresses/Bass Pro Shops/5-Hour Energy/Auto-Owners Insurance/WIX Filters	Toyota	Furniture Row Racing
83	Corey LaJoie	Dustless Blasting  (partial season)	Toyota	BK Racing
88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Nationwide/Axalta Coatings/Diet Mountain Dew	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
95	Michael McDowell	?	Chevrolet	Leavine Family Racing
		* Rookie of The Year candidate
Part-time/Questionable teams
7	Elliott Sadler **	Golden Corral (Daytona 500 only)	Chevrolet	Tommy Baldwin Racing
16	**			Roush Fenway Racing
30	**	???	Chevrolet	The Motorsports Group
44	**			Richard Petty Motorsports
51	Timmy Hill **	?  (Daytona 500 only)	Chevrolet	Rick Ware Racing
55	Reed Sorenson **	?	Toyota	Premium Motorsports
96	D.J. Kennington **	Castrol/Lordco Auto Parts (Daytona 500 only)	Toyota	Gaunt Brothers Racing
		** No Charter

Segmentation, Augmentation - Cap Considerations

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver

On Monday, NASCAR announced a bold new points’ structure to coincide with the new entitlement sponsor, Monster Energy.

NASCAR senses that the fan base has evolved from the days of endurance-style racing. In the Golden Age of stock car racing, drivers and teams were forced to protect their equipment until the final laps of a 500-mile race. But advancements in technology no longer make that an open question and now teams bide their time and simply wait for the end.

The introduction of Monster Energy as an entitlement sponsor provided a natural segue into a new era, just as the introduction of Nextel/Sprint provided a good opportunity to introduce the Chase for the Championship. The hope is that Monster Energy will tap into their fan base as well, and drive a younger audience toward the Cup series.

The question shifts to what NASCAR should do with those new fans.

The answer is to raise the sense of urgency for every lap and every race.

When NASCAR implemented the win-and-in format that guaranteed a spot in the Chase, the unintended consequence was that a driver who won the Daytona 500—like Denny Hamlin did last year—would treat the remainder of the season as a test and not race hard for victories. The same was true of the driver who won the second race, and third, and fourth, and so on until there were quite a few unmotivated drivers.

A bonus went with each victory, but those bonuses expired at the end of the end of round one of the playoffs and did not provide sufficient incentive.

The answer to the problem faced was to make every race count. And not only every race, but every lap of every race.

For a complete description of NASCAR’s rules change, take a moment to read Dustin Long’s excellent piece, NASCAR announces enhancements to race formats.

The most significant change is that races will now be divided into three stages and NASCAR has made running in the top 10 at those segments meaningful. The Daytona 500 will not alter its format, but the Duels in Daytona will act as the stages for this particular races.

The first two segments will most likely encompass the first and second quarters of a race, leaving a longer segment at the end for drivers and teams to implement more traditional strategies. Points will be paid to the top 10 runners at the end of each segment, starting at 10 for the leader with one point going to the driver in 10th place. At the end of the race, 40 points will be awarded to the winner; drivers finishing 36th through 40th will receive one point. Bonuses for leading a lap, the most laps, and winning the race have been eliminated. A driver who leads both segments and the race could earn a maximum of 60 points.

Increasing the maximum points means more is at stake in a single race, and that is going to have one of the biggest impacts on fantasy racing. Imagine a field full of drivers racing flat out every week. Now imagine what happens when they make a minor mistake. Racing for a top-10 finish is no longer for honor. Those points will be incredibly important to who makes or misses the top-16 cutoff for the playoffs.

NASCAR has created at least three “moments” in the race when a single position means a point. Ryan Newman is one of the best closers in the sport—often gaining two or three positions in the final 10 percent of a race. If he can do that during each segment, suddenly he has four or six more points per race, which multiplied by 26 regular season races could be a swing of more than 200 markers. It could make a huge difference in who qualifies for the playoffs.

A race win still locks a driver into the playoffs, but he can never give up. “There are no off weeks. Every single race matters. Not only that, but every lap of every race matters,” Hamlin said during the conference announcing the format change.

One bonus point will be awarded the winner of each of the first two segments. Five bonus points will still be given to the winner and all of these bonuses will carry through the first three rounds of the playoffs. In the past, a driver who won four races had a 20-point advantage for only the first round. For winning those same four races and if he won at least one segment in each race, he could have 24 points added to his total and would benefit from that addition in the second and third rounds.

Again, increasingly the volatility of the points means raising the stakes and emotional level for the racers. It also means the field is essentially racing for the win three times instead of once and drivers will often take drastic steps to get that trophy—or in this case, the bonus point.

The gloves come off in just a little more than a month, and it is likely we will not know the full impact of this new format. It promises to be exciting, however, and change the strategies of not only drivers and teams, but also fantasy players.

Chase Elliott Profile

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver

A lot is about to change in NASCAR. A new entitlement sponsor has an emphasis on youth at a time when approximately one quarter of the field will be made up of drivers with four or fewer years’ experience. Several of these drivers land in the top 16 profiles, but one name stands above the rest.

Chase Elliott bridges the gap between the old guard and new. His father Bill Elliott won the 1988 Winston Cup Series championship, but his impact went much deeper. For many years, he was one of the principle rivals of Dale Earnhardt Sr., Darrell Waltrip, and Rusty Wallace. He raced with Benny Parson, Richard Petty, and Cale Yarborough and now it is his son’s time to shine.

Elliott comes along at a time when several top-named drivers are peaking. Teammate Jimmie Johnson might have another couple of championships left in him, but he will not dominate as he once did. In fact, with the new winner-take-all format of the final round it is unlikely that anyone will be able to string a long streak of championships together like Johnson, Earnhardt, and Petty. Once he learns how to win races, however, Elliott is going to be one of best and most consistent fantasy values in the game.

Elliott started last season like he had something to prove. He won the pole for the Daytona 500, lost 40 laps to crash damage, and finished poorly. An accident at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was reminiscent of another rookie who tore up a lot of No. 24 cars, but once he settled down Elliott was consistent and fast. Fantasy players should recall the frequency with which Jeff Gordon crashed as a rookie and reflect on the career he went on to have.

Despite crashing in two of the first three races last year, Elliott scored 11 top-10s and a 12th in the first 15 races. He sustained crash damage in six of the next 11 races as his focus shifted to making the playoffs. Bracketing this span of disappointments were a pair of second-place finishes at Michigan International Speedway that helped him become the best fantasy value on two-mile tracks. During the playoffs, he finished third twice—at Chicagoland Speedway and Dover International Speedway, which are two completely different tracks to Michigan.

It is his second full season, one should expect him to go further into the playoffs. Chase will qualify for the third round and might even have a shot at the Cup. His biggest impact is going to be overall improvement everywhere, however. Look for him to challenge for wins on unrestricted, intermediate speedways once more, improve his short track program, and run better on one-mile tracks than he did as a rookie.

Victories: None
Top-fives: 10 (.278)
Top-10s: 17 (.472)
Top-15s: 25 (.778)

Track	3-Yr Avg. Fin	Career Avg. Fin	Best Fin	Career Attempts	Career Top-10s	Race 1	Race 2
Michigan International Speedway +	2.00	2.00	2	2	2	2	2
Chicagoland Speedway	3.00	3.00	3	1	1	3
Dover Downs International +	3.00	3.00	3	2	2	3	3
Texas Motor Speedway +	4.50	4.50	4	2	2	5	4
Auto Club Speedway	6.00	6.00	6	1	1	6
Atlanta Motor Speedway	8.00	8.00	8	1	1	8
Phoenix International Raceway *	8.50	8.50	8	2	2	8	9
Talladega SuperSpeedway	8.50	8.50	5	2	1	5	12
Bristol Motor Speedway	9.50	9.50	4	2	1	4	15
Homestead - Miami Speedway	11.00	11.00	11	1		11
Watkins Glen International	13.00	13.00	13	1		13
Richmond International Raceway	15.67	15.67	12	3		12	19
Indianapolis Motor Speedway	16.50	16.50	15	2		15
Pocono Raceway	18.50	18.50	4	2	1	4	33
Charlotte Motor Speedway	19.67	19.67	8	3	1	8	33
Kansas Speedway	20.00	20.00	9	2	1	9	31
Sonoma Raceway	21.00	21.00	21	1		21
Martinsville Speedway	23.33	23.33	12	3		20	12
New Hampshire Motor Speedway	23.50	23.50	13	2		34	13
Darlington Raceway	25.50	25.50	10	2	1	10
Kentucky Speedway	31.00	31.00	31	1		31
Daytona International Speedway	34.50	34.50	32	2		37	32
Las Vegas Motor Speedway	38.00	38.00	38	1		38

++ Swept Victory Lane
+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps

Plan Ahead: Larson best at Homestead, Pocono

Kyle Larson has never finished worse than 15th at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but more importantly he has improved in all four outings to make this his best track during the past three years with a 6.7.

Larson’s four results on this track have progressed from a 15th, to 13th, fifth, and last year’s runner-up to Jimmie Johnson. During his career, Larson has been slightly better at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Darlington Raceway with a 7.0 in three starts each—and it was a 15th at Homestead in a pre-rookie warm-up that skews his career average ever so slightly.

Larson’'s best track that hosts more than one race per year is Pocono Raceway, where he also has a perfect record of top-15s.

Rotoworld predicts Larson will finish in the top 10 in points this season.

via RotoWorld.

Kenseth has earned fourth-most top-10s in ppast three years

Matt Kenseth has earned the fourth-most top-10s in the past three years with a total of 61.

That puts Kenseth only one top-10 ahead of teammate Denny Hamlin and it illustrates just how strong this organization has been during the past three years. The difference-maker is that Kenseth has one more victory in that timeframe than Hamlin.

Kenseth'’s best tracks in the past three years have been Dover International Speedway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where he has five apiece. Notably both tracks are a mile in length.

via RotoWorld.

Contrarian Picks - Cap Considerations

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver

Fantasy players need to be situationally aware.

Last October’s Hellmann's 500 was a great example of knowing when to lay back and when to charge. All four Joe Gibbs Racing teams were still in the Chase. Three of them had enough points to advance so long as Carl Edwards did not get swept into an early-race crash. He, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth chose to ride around outside of the lead pack out of harm’s way.

Denny Hamlin did not have that same luxury. He was forced to race his way into the next round of the Chase and eventually made a daring move to get in by a whisker. Hamlin was the contrarian.

Forced to accumulate maximum points, he had to do what his teammates did not—but it pays to note that all of them made it to the third round. If a player finds himself behind in the count in season-long games, they are going to have to take some chances.

Contrarian picks come in two forms. There are flat out dark horses that are NASCAR’s equivalent of a Hail Mary pass, and there are secondary drivers and teams that find the top 10 in less than a third of the events.

Longshot dark horses are difficult to predict and should only be used on restrictor-plate, superspeedways and in times of desperation. Still, a driver like Michael McDowell who surged when Todd Parrott came to the organization helped win a lot of fantasy contests even though he did not score a lot of top-10s.

Last year, 34 drivers earned top-10s including a dozen who scored five or less. Several of them scored their top-10s on plate tracks, which are notorious for rewarding dark horses, but Trevor Bayne’s strong runs at Bristol Motor Speedway and Dover International Speedway, Paul Menard’s three top-10s on flat tracks, and Clint Bowyer and Matt DiBenedetto’s solid Bristol efforts prove that there are other courses on which driver skill can trump horsepower.

There are also drivers with uneven results for whom timing their starts are often difficult. Kasey Kahne earned 13 top-10s in 2016, but it was not until the end of the regular season that he managed to post consecutive strong runs. When he finally broke through, he earned four in a row, finished 12th in the next race, and then scored two more. Determining when to climb on a bandwagon can be critical.

AJ Allmendinger is another interesting driver to watch. All but two of his nine top-10s last year came in conjunction with another. These pairings were not natural ones, such as Menard’s string of flat track successes. Allmendinger doubled down at Auto Club Speedway and Martinsville Speedway early in the year, Watkins Glen International and Bristol in the summer, and then Kansas Speedway, Talladega SuperSpeedway and Martinsville in the fall. In 2017, as soon as he scores one top 10, he should be activated in the next race.

The Rookie of the Year contenders round out the list of contrarians. On the heels of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney’s strong runs last year, it is expected that Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones, and Ty Dillon will earn their fair share of top-10s. In salary cap games, they are likely to be relatively cheap at the start of the season. Moreover, they will not be particularly volatile because they are unlikely to string long streak of top-10s together and that is what usually triggers a meteoric rise in value.

Brad Keselowski Profile

via RotoWorld/Dan Beaver

Brad Keselowski had an impressive 2016 season by anyone’s measure but his biggest disappointments came at the beginning and end of the season and that might contribute to his being overlooked by the competition.

Keselowski was the third driver to earn his Chase berth when he visited Victory Lane at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March’s Kobalt 400. He added another victory at Talladega SuperSpeedway in May, and posted consecutive wins at Daytona International Speedway and Kentucky Speedway during the summer. At that time, he looked like one of the favorites to win the Chase. In the span of nine races, he had three victories, six total top-fives, two more top-10s, and a worst result of 15th.

After posting two results in the mid-teens, Keselowski regained his momentum quickly and rattled off nine top-10s in his next 10 races. Most of these were top-fives and that streak carried him well into the Chase. During the playoffs, Keselowski showed a characteristic that at once makes him an attractive fantasy value and a challenge. In the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway, he was too aggressive while battling for a spot on the cusp of the top 10. He slid up in front of Denny Hamlin, lost his forward drive, and was tipped into the inside retaining wall.

Outside the care center, Keselowski was asked if discretion might have been a better choice and he defiantly said he would not stop racing the same way that earned him a Chase berth. But, only one race remained in that round—and it was coming on the wild card Talladega SuperSpeedway. Kez had one win in the bank already from that track, but plate races are never predictable and when he blew an engine on lap 144, his fate was sealed.

As it turned out, Keselowski would score only one top-10 after crashing at Kansas. That was a second at Martinsville Speedway and it completed a sweep of the top five on that course. Of the 13 tracks that hosted two races in 2016, Keselowski swept the top 10 on five of them, but he had top-10s in less than two-thirds of his starts and in only 40 percent of the Chase races.

Keselowski also got off to a relatively slow start. Despite winning in race three, he had only four top-10s in the first nine weeks. His victory at ‘Dega kicked off one of two long streaks, but fantasy owners might wish to be a little patient before activating him in contests that limit allocations or in Daily Fantasy Sports. Once he posts back-to-back top-10s, jump on the bandwagon immediately and ride it until he falls outside the top 15 in consecutive events.

Victories: Las Vegas, Talladega (spring), Daytona (summer), Kentucky
Top-fives: 16 (.444)
Top-10s: 22 (.611)
Top-15s: 27 (.750)

Track	3-Yr Avg. Fin	Career Avg. Fin	Best Fin	Career Attempts	Career Top-10s	Race 1	Race 2
Kentucky Speedway	2.67	8.17	1	6	5	1
Las Vegas Motor Speedway	3.00	16.75	1	8	4	1
Chicagoland Speedway	4.67	9.63	1	8	6	5
Michigan International Speedway +	5.50	12.33	2	15	8	4	3
New Hampshire Motor Speedway	6.83	10.27	1	15	9	15	4
Dover Downs International *	7.00	14.27	1	15	6	6	4
Richmond International Raceway	7.50	15.07	1	15	6	11	4
Pocono Raceway +	8.17	11.29	1	14	7	3	2
Charlotte Motor Speedway *	9.00	13.40	1	15	7	5	7
Darlington Raceway	9.33	12.13	2	8	4	9
Texas Motor Speedway	9.50	16.24	2	17	6	18	14
Phoenix International Raceway	10.86	14.60	3	15	7	29	14
Homestead - Miami Speedway Progressive	11.75	15.89	3	9	3	35
Auto Club Speedway	12.00	18.75	1	8	2	9
Indianapolis Motor Speedway	13.00	13.86	9	7	3	17
Watkins Glen International	15.00	10.14	2	7	5	3
Talladega SuperSpeedway	17.33	15.38	1	16	9	1	38
Bristol Motor Speedway	18.00	15.93	1	14	5	18	33
Martinsville Speedway +	18.33	13.79	2	14	8	5	2
Sonoma Raceway	18.67	19.14	10	7	1	15
Daytona International Speedway	18.67	22.25	1	16	4	20	1
Kansas Speedway	18.83	13.93	1	14	7	10	38
Atlanta Motor Speedway	19.00	20.25	3	8	4	9

+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps

2017 Daytona 500 in 38 days

 via RotoWorld/Anthony Ballantoni

During the off-season, Look Ahead gives a snapshot of where drivers finished in 2016 and what’s ahead for them in 2017. We will look at drivers who finished in the top 40 in the Sprint Cup Series (now the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in 2017) point standings and those who ended the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series standings in the top 30 in points. Since many teams have yet to firm up their 2017 plans, follow Rotoworld NASCAR Headlines for the latest updates.

With 38 days to go until the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season-opening Daytona 500, here are a few of the driver recaps followed by a tentative list of 2017 Cup driver/team lineups.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (NSCS):
2016: Chris Buescher – Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford Fusion - In 36 races, the Prosper, TX driver led 12 laps, scored one win, two top-5s, two top-10s, had a 26.2 average start, a 26.1 average finish, earned 2,169 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. After the Round of 16 events, Buescher was eliminated and closed out the season 16th in the standings.
Best 2016 NSCS start: 12th – Bristol 8/20
Best finishes: Win – Pocono 8/1
Last career NSCS win: Pocono Raceway on August 1, 2016.
2017: Roush Fenway Racing leased the NASCAR contract, along with a one-year loan of driver Buescher (who is also under contract with RFR), to JTG-Daugherty Racing. Buescher will pilot the No. 37 Ford Fusion as a teammate to AJ Allmendinger (No. 47) at JTG Racing. At this time, RFR plans on returning to a 3-car team in 2018 and Buescher will most likely return to RFR for that season. Trent Owens has been named crew chief for Buescher in 2017.

2016: Tony Stewart – Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Chevrolet SS – Stewart suffered an injury in a dune buggy accident prior to the 2016 season forcing him to miss the first eight races. In 28 races, the Columbus, IN driver led 36 laps, scored one win, five top-5s, eight top-10s, had a 14.8 average start, an 18.3 average finish, earned 2,211 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. After the Round of 16 races, Stewart was eliminated and closed out the season 15th in the standings.
Best 2016 NSCS starts: 3rd – Michigan 6/12, Indianapolis 7/24 and Watkins Glen 8/7
Best 2016 finish: Win – Sonoma 6/26
Last career NSCS win: Sonoma Raceway on June 26, 2016.
2017: As announced in 2015, this was Tony Stewart’s final full-time season in NASCAR. He will remain an owner (Stewart-Haas Racing) and turned over the No. 14 Ford Fusion (team switched from Chevrolet for 2017) to Clint Bowyer. Stewart is not retiring from other forms of racing. He said he's "..doing late model racing, sprint car racing. I'm building a three-quarter midget to run a couple of (county) fair races this year. There are some tracks that I've never been to that I'm going to get a chance to go to on our schedule. We're up to 71 races, and I'm guessing we're going to get another 10 to 15 more races on the schedule before it's all said and done."

2016: Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet SS - In 36 races, the Lewisville, NC driver, led 17 laps, scored two poles, four top-5s, 13 top-10s, had a 14.0 average start, a 15.9 average finish, earned 2,223 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. After the Round of 16 races, Dillon was eliminated and closed out the season 14th in the standings. He also entered 19 XFINITY Series races in RCR’s No. 2 Camaro; averaged a 5.8 start and a 6.9 average finish (including wins at Fontana and Bristol). Dillon entered Carlos Contreras’ No. 71 Chevrolet Silverado in the Camping World Truck race at Fort Worth (finished 8th).
Best 2016 NSCS starts: Pole – Fontana 3/20 and Texas 11/6
Best 2016 finish: 3rd – Talladega 5/1
Last career NSCS win: None so far.
2017: Dillon will return full-time in his grandfather’s (RCR) No. 3 Chevrolet SS. Crew chief Slugger Labbe and all primary sponsors will return as well. Dillon will also share the RCR No. 2 Camaro with Cup teammate Paul Menard in the XFINITY Series races.

2016: Jamie McMurray – Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet SS - In 36 races, the Joplin, MO driver scored two top-5s, 12 top-10s, had a 16.6 average start, a 15.8 average finish, earned 2,231 points and made the 2016 Chase to the Sprint Cup. After the Round of 16 races, McMurray was eliminated and closed out the season 13th in the standings.
Best 2016 NSCS start: 2nd – Atlanta 2/28
Best 2016 finish: 4th – Talladega 5/1
Last career NSCS win: Talladega Superspeedway on October 20, 2013.
2017: McMurray is signed thru 2017 to return to Ganassi’s No. 1 Chevy. Sponsorship continues and it appears crew chief Matt McCall will return as well.

NASCAR XFINITY Series (NXS):
2016: Brendan Gaughan – Richard Childress Racing No. 62 Chevrolet Camaro - In 33 races, the Las Vegas, NV driver led 36 laps, scored four top-5s, 16 top-10s, had a 13.5 average start, a 12.2 average finish, earned 2,161 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. Gaughan made it thru the Round of 12 races, but was eliminated after the Round of 8 events and closed out the season 12th in the standings.
Best 2016 NXS starts: 6th – Daytona 2/20 and Talladega 4/30
Best 2016 finish: 2nd – Road America 8/27
Last career NXS win: Kentucky Speedway on September 20, 2014.
2017: Gaughan will return for another season in RCR’s No. 62 Camaro. Crew chief Shane Wilson and sponsors will also return. Gaughan will also attempt to make the field for the 2017 Daytona 500 driving the Mark Beard-owned Chevrolet entry. This was a former Leavine Family Racing car that finished 15th in the 2016 500 with Michael McDowell behind the wheel. Gaughan will have his XFINITY Series pit crew and the car will have an RCR motor.

2016: Darrell Wallace Jr. – Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford Mustang – In 32 races, the Mobile, AL driver led 34 laps, scored three top-5s, nine top-10s, had a 13.0 average start, a 15.7 average finish, earned 2,163 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. Wallace made it thru the Round of 12 races, but was eliminated after the Round of 8 races and closed out the season 11th in the standings.
Best 2016 NXS start: 5th – Phoenix 11/12
Best 2016 finish: 2nd – Dover 5/14
Last career NXS win: None so far.
2017: Wallace will continue at RFR in the No. 6 Mustang. No announced plans, but Seth Barbour is still listed as crew chief for the team.

2016: Brandon Jones – Richard Childress Racing No. 33 Chevrolet Camaro – In 33 races, the Atlanta, GA driver led 36 laps, scored 12 top-10s, had a 14.4 average start, a 13.8 average finish, earned 2,168 points and made the 2016 NXS Chase. After the Round of 12 races, Jones was eliminated and closed out the season 10th in the standings. He also drove Carlos Contreras’ No. 71 Chevrolet Silverado in five Camping World Truck races; average start: 11.8, average finish: 12.8, best finish: 7th at Kentucky. Jones made five ARCA Racing Series starts in Doug Fuller’s No. 8 Chevrolet. He scored three top fives including a win at Michigan Int’l Speedway (led 51 laps of the 100 laps run in that event).
Best 2016 NXS start: 4th – Bristol 8/19
Best 2016 finish: 6th – Las Vegas 3/5
Last career NXS win: None so far.
2017: Jones is returning full-time in RCR’s No. 33 Camaro. The only announced change so far is that he will be paired with crew chief Nick Harrison this season.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (NCWTS):
2016: Spencer Gallagher – GMS Racing No. 23 Chevrolet Silverado - In 23 races, the Las Vegas, NV driver led 111 laps, scored two poles, one top-5, eight top-10s, had an 11.3 average start, a 15.8 average finish, earned 402 points and closed out the season 12th in the standings. Gallagher also drove his family-owned (GMS Racing) No. 21 Camaro in seven XFINITY Series races in preparation to move up to that series in 2017. His best NXS finish was an 8th place at Daytona.
Best 2016 NCWTS starts: Pole – Chicago 9/16 and Texas 11/4
Best 2016 finish: 2nd – Talladega 10/22
Last career NCWTS win: None so far.
2017: GMS Racing has announced that Gallagher will move up full-time to the XFINITY Series this season. He will pilot the No. 23 Chevrolet Camaro. Details on sponsors, crew chief and engine supplier has not be announced at this time. Also, no announced plans for the No. 23 truck team.

2016: Cameron Hayley – ThorSport Racing No. 13 Toyota Tundra – In 23 races, the Calgary, Alberta driver led 21 laps, scored six top-5s, 11 top-10s, had an 11.0 average start, a 12.5 average finish, earned 476 points and closed out the season 11th in the standings.
Best 2016 NCWTS start: 2nd – Iowa 6/18
Best 2016 finishes: 2nd – Atlanta 2/27 and Pocono 7/30
Last career NCWTS win: None so far.
2017: Hayley has announced he will not return to ThorSport Racing in 2017. No word on his plans. No word on plans for ThorSport’s No. 13 truck team.

2016: Cole Custer – JR Motorsports No. 00 Chevrolet Silverado - In 23 races, the Ladera Ranch, CA driver led 82 laps, scored two poles, five top-5s, 14 top-10s, had a 10.1 average start, an 11.5 average finish, earned 502 points and closed out the season 10th in the standings. Custer drove JRM’s Nos. 5 and 88 Camaros in five XFINITY races with best finishes of 4th (Charlotte) and 6th (Richmond). He entered the NASCAR K&N Pro Series East race at Watkins Glen driving HScott’s No. 98 Toyota; started and finished in 3rd place. He also made two ARCA Racing Series starts. One for Ken Schrader (pole to 10th place) and another filling in for injured John Wes Townley (started 12th, finished 7th).
Best 2016 NCWTS starts: Pole – Canadian Tire Motorsports Park 9/4 and Talladega 10/22
Best 2016 finishes: 2nd – CTMP 9/4 and Iowa 6/18
Last career NCWTS win: Gateway Motorsports Park on June 13, 2015.
2017: JR Motorsports has decided not to continue in the NCWTS and to concentrate on fielding five XFINITY Series teams in 2017. Custer has been hired to drive full-time for Stewart-Haas Racing for their first XFINITY Series team. He will pilot SHR’s No. 00 Haas Automation Ford Mustang and have Jeff Meendering leading the team as crew chief.

2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Lineup full-time teams(Tentative)
Car	Driver	Sponsor	Make	Owner
1	Jamie McMurray	Cessna/McDonald’s/GearWrench	Chevrolet	Chip Ganassi Racing
2	Brad Keselowski	Miller Lite/Alliance Truck Parts/Wurth/Autotrader	Ford	Team Penske
3	Austin Dillon	Dow//Bass Pro Shops/American Ethanol/AAA	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
4	Kevin Harvick	Busch Beer/Jimmie Johns/Mobil 1	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
5	Kasey Kahne	Farmers Insurance/Great Clips/LiftMaster/Quicken Loans/ Panasonic/Mountain Dew/AARP/UniFirst	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
6	Trevor Bayne	AdvoCare/Liberty National/ Performance Plus	Ford	Roush Fenway Racing
10	Danica Patrick	Nature’s Bakery/Aspen Dental/ TaxACT/Mobil 1/Code 3 Assoc.	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
11	Denny Hamlin	FedEx/Sport Clips	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
13	Ty Dillon *	Geico	Chevrolet	Germain Racing
14	Clint Bowyer	Haas Automation/Mobil 1	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
17	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/SunnyD	Ford	Roush Fenway Racing
18	Kyle Busch	M&M’s/Skittles/Interstate Batteries	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
19	Daniel Suarez *	Arris/Stanley/Sport Clips/Subway	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
20	Matt Kenseth	DeWalt	Toyota	Joe Gibbs Racing
21	Ryan Blaney	Motorcraft/Quick Lane/SKF	Ford	Wood Brothers Racing
22	Joey Logano	Shell-Pennzoil/Autotrader/AAA	Ford	Team Penske
23	Joey Gase	Best Home Furnishings (3 races)	Toyota	BK Racing
24	Chase Elliott	NAPA Auto Parts/3M/Kelley Blue Book/Mountain Dew/SunEnergy1	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
27	Paul Menard	Menards	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
31	Ryan Newman	Caterpillar/Grainger	Chevrolet	Richard Childress Racing
32	Matt DiBenedetto	Can-Am/Keen Parts/Visone RV	Ford	GoFAS Racing
33	?	???	Chevrolet	Circle Sport w/TMG
34	Landon Cassill	Taco Bell	Ford	Front Row Motorsports
37	Chris Buescher	Kroger	Chevrolet	JTG Daugherty Racing
38	David Ragan	Taco Bell	Ford	Front Row Motorsports
41	Kurt Busch	Monster Energy/Haas Automation/Mobil 1	Ford	Stewart-Haas Racing
42	Kyle Larson	Target/CreditOne	Chevrolet	Chip Ganassi Racing
43	Aric Almirola	Smithfield Foods/U.S. Air Force	Ford	Richard Petty Motorsports
47	AJ Allmendinger	Kroger/Scott Products/ Kingsford Charcoal/Bush’s Baked Beans	Chevrolet	JTG Daugherty Racing
48	Jimmie Johnson	Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
77	Erik Jones *	5-Hour Energy	Toyota	Furniture Row Racing
78	Martin Truex Jr.	Furniture Row/Denver Mattresses/Bass Pro Shops/5-Hour Energy/Auto-Owners Insurance	Toyota	Furniture Row Racing
83	?	?	Toyota	BK Racing
88	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	Nationwide/Axalta Coatings/Diet Mountain Dew	Chevrolet	Hendrick Motorsports
95	Michael McDowell	?	Chevrolet	Leavine Family Racing
		* Rookie of The Year candidate
Part-time/Questionable teams
7	Elliott Sadler **	Golden Corral (attempting Daytona 500 only)	Chevrolet	Tommy Baldwin Racing
16	**			Roush Fenway Racing
30	**	???	Chevrolet	The Motorsports Group
44	**			Richard Petty Motorsports
55	**	?	?	Premium Motorsports
96	D.J. Kennington	Castrol/Lordco Auto Parts (Daytona 500 only)	Toyota	Gaunt Brothers Racing
98	**	?	?	Premium Motorsports
		** No Charter