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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Fantasy Sleepers and Value Picks – Charlotte Motor Speedway (Coca-Cola 600)

Sleepers:

Jamie McMurray: Jamie McMurray is a stout sleeper play this week at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He’s been hot as of late, scoring five top 10s in his last seven races, and averaging a finish of 12.7 this season. McMurray sits seventh in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. In 29 career starts at Charlotte, McMurray has been extremely productive – netting two wins, seven top fives and 11 top 10s. He owns an average finish at Charlotte of 16.4, with an average place differential of +6.2.

Kasey Kahne: Though a little inconsistent over his last few races, Kasey Kahne is a driver owners will want in their #FantasyNASCAR lineups this weekend at Charlotte. In 26 career starts at Charlotte, Kahne has won four times, has 10 top fives and 14 top 10s. He’s 1,106 career laps at Charlotte – which is second among active drivers. Kahne’s average finish at Charlotte is 12.8 – which is third among active drivers. Give his asking price and history at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Kahne is close to must-start territory this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Since finishing 32nd at Daytona earlier this season, Clint Bowyer has yet to finish outside the top-15. Through 11 races this season, Bowyer owns an average finish of 11.5, with an average place differential of +2.0. He sits 13th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. It gets better. Bowyer historically has run well at Charlotte. In 22 starts at Charlotte, Bowyer has one win, two top fives and five top 10s. He’s led 119 career laps at Charlotte and owns an average finish of 17.2.

Ryan Newman: Ryan Newman’s last two outings have ended poorly; crash at Talladega and an oil pump issue at Kansas, but the RCR driver remains a great sleeper play. He has one win this season and three top 10s. Newman has nine poles at Charlotte – the most among active drivers. In 32 starts at Charlotte, he has five top fives and 14 top 10s, with 278 laps led. Newman hasn’t finished outside the top-20 at Charlotte dating back to 2011. He is a solid buy this week for his asking price.

Value Plays:

Paul Menard: Paul Menard has had an up and down season through 11 races this season, but remains a quality value play for his potential production. He has one top five, two top 10s and owns an average finish of 21.6 on the season. Menard usually races quite well in the Coca-Cola 600. He has finishes of 17th (2016), 14th (2015), eighth (2014), 13th (2013) and 15th (2012) in his last five Coca-Cola 600s. He owns an average finish of 23.4 at Charlotte in 20 career starts there.

Chris Buescher: Through 11 races this season, Chris Buescher has finished outside the top-25 only three times, and two of those three were because he crashed. Buescher has three-consecutive races where he’s finished 18th or better (Richmond, Talladega and Kansas). In that span, he sits 16th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. In the fall race at Charlotte last season, Buescher finished 16th after starting 26th. He owns a career average running position at Charlotte of 17.0 in two races there.

David Ragan: David Ragan has been one of the most consistent value plays of the season through 11 races. Ragan has finished 25th or better in five of his last six races. Plus, he ranks 12th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. Ragan is averaging a finish of 24.0 this season, with an average place differential of +5.8. Since 2005, Ragan has run 30.6 percent of his laps in the top 15 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. In 20 starts there, he owns an average finish of 25.6, and has three top 10s.

Landon Cassill: Scoring 21st-place finishes in two of his last three races (Richmond, Kansas), Landon Cassill makes an appealing value play this week at Charlotte. In those two races, he had positive place differential of +7 or better in both. Cassill is averaging a finish this season of 25.4, with an average place differential of +1.6. He brings value to the table this week at Charlotte mostly in place differential as he owns a career average place differential at Charlotte of +3.4. In his last three races at Charlotte, Cassill has positive place differential of at least +6 or better.

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