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Thursday, May 11, 2017

Fantasy Sleepers and Value Picks – Kansas Speedway (Go Bowling 400)

Sleepers:

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is an elite sleeper play this week by all means necessary. In 22 starts at Kansas Speedway, Kenseth has two wins, seven top fives and 13 to p 10s. He’s led 774 career laps at Kansas – good for the most among active drivers. To make matters more appealing, Kenseth has 13-consecutive top-14 or better finishes at Kansas dating back to 2010. His driver rating at Kansas since 2015 is 116.8. Kenseth is borderline a must-start this week and his price for potential production is almost a no-brainer.

Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch got out to a hot start winning the Daytona 500 earlier this season. His production slipped shortly after but this week at Kansas he might turn it all around. Busch has three top 10s in his last four starts and ranks 20th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. At Kansas, Kurt has two top fives and seven top 10s in 22 starts. He’s led 260 career laps at Kansas, but perhaps more impressive, has only finished outside the top 25 there five times. His price remains equitable for potential production.

Kasey Kahne: If you’re an owner who has started Kahne frequently this season, you’re likely doing well in #FantasyNASCAR. In 10 starts this season, Kahne has finished outside the top-22 only once. He owns an average finish on the season of 16.2, with an average place differential of +2.5. In 19 Kansas starts, Kahne has five top fives, nine top 10s and has led 102 laps. Since 2015, Kahne has run 69 percent of his laps in the top 15 and owns a place differential of +6.5 at Kansas Speedway.

Ryan Newman: Newman continues to be a solid sleeper pick in 2017. His price for his production this year has been an absolute bargain. In 10 starts this season, Newman has one win, three top 10s and eight top 25s. He ranks 16th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. In 22 starts at Kansas, Newman has excelled – winning once (2003, fall) and scoring three top fives and seven top 10s. He’s led 128 laps at Kansas and has six-consecutive top-12 finishes there.

Value Plays:

Aric Almirola: Aric Almirola has been racing so well this season, he will not be a value option much longer. He has back-to-back top 10 finishes, including a fourth-place finish at Talladega. Almirola’s place differential in 2017 has been almost unmatchable. He owns an average fini sh of 15.2, with an average place differential of +8.1. He’s produced positive place differential in sev en races this season. See for yourself: Daytona (+9), Atlanta (+3), Vegas (+16), Phoenix (+11), Auto Club (+12), Richmond (+16) and Talladega (+18).

Ty Dillon: Ty Dillon remains one of the best value plays money can buy. He’s finished top-22 or better in eight races this season – owning an average finish of 19.3, wi th an average place differential of +2.4. Dillon’s place differential has been key as he has six races of positive place differential this season, including last week at Talladega where he moved up +15 spots to finish 13th. Dillon has one career premier series start at Kansas and he finished 26th after starting 32nd. He ranks 18th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races.

David Ragan: Value Alert! Value Alert! David Ragan is regained all forms of a value play across all leagues. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five races including a top 10 at Talladega. Ragan currently ranks 15th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. He owns an average finish of 24.7, with an average place differential of +4.7 on the season. Ragan gives owners the most value in place differential with his bargain salary. In 16 career starts at Kansas, Ragan owns an average finish of 25.8.

Cole Whitt: Cole Whitt should be considered as a strong value play in all formats in #FantasyNASCAR. Whitt scored his third top-20 finish of 2017 at Talladega, while also producing a place differential of... +22(!). His price for current production is absolutely worth it week-to-week until otherwise noted. Whitt ranks 17th in fantasy points averaged scored over his last three races. Plus his average finish this season is 24.7., with an average place differential of +6.4. In seven career race s at Kansas, Whitt is averaging a place differential of +4.2.

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