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Thursday, February 16, 2017

Kyle Larson: Third-best at Dover, dominant at Honestead

Kyle Larson has earned the third-best average finish at Dover, with a 9.3 in his last six attempts.

Larson is a great value on several tracks, but as a fourth-year driver he still suffers from some irregular results. Larson entered last fall’s Dover race with a career-worst of 11th in his first attempt at that course until a battery problem ultimately cost six laps and a shot at advancing out of round one of the playoffs.

8.8 AT POCONO

Among active drivers, Larson has the third-best average finish at Pocono Raceway. His last six races at that track wound up with an 8.8.

HOMESTEAD DOMINANCE

Larson easily had the most dominant car of the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, leading 132 of 268 laps, but he was overtaken by Jimmie Johnson on the final restart before finishing second.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

In strong equipment, Clint Bowyer is a gem

Clint Bowyer has scored five top-10s in his last seven Daytona International Speedway in good equipment; this season, he climbs into Tony Stewart's old ride and should challenge for a top-five.

Bowyer has been consistently strong while running for Richard Childress Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing and even HScott Motorsports. This year, he will have solid drafting partners with the rest of his SHR partners and that will make a big difference if he is near the front in the final laps of the Daytona 500.

Earnhardt's Pocono record, third best overall

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a three-year average finish of 3.8 at Pocono Raceway, which makes this the third-best driver/track combination during that span among all active drivers with more than two starts.

In the past three years, 36 driver/track combinations have resulted in results of 10th or better. Earnhardt has been almost as perfect at Pocono in that span as Kevin Harvick at Phoenix International Raceway or Kyle Busch at Texas Motor Speedway, so he is a must-have when the series rolls onto the tricky triangle in June. Junior swept Victory Lane in 2014, finished 11th then fourth in 2015, and came close to winning last summer's Axalta 400 before settling into second.

Kyle Busch second best at RIR during last three years

Kyle Busch has a current five-race streak of top-15s at Richmond International Raceway, which gives him an average finish of 6.0.

That is the second-best three-year average finish of fulltime drivers who have made more than two starts at this track in that span. Busch has two runner-up finishes and a third in those events, but he is more than capable of winning. In his 23-race career on this course, he has four wins. All of these came in the spring and the latest was in 2012. That is going to make him a popular pick this April in the Toyota Owners 400.

Matt Kenseth best at NHMS over last three years

Matt Kenseth has a recent three-year average finish of 5.83 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which makes him the leading driver at this track.

Kenseth's 5.83 ties him for the eighth-best three-year average finish among all active drivers with more than two starts on tracks that host two races per year. Kenseth earned this average with five top-10s in his last six efforts that includes back-to-back wins in fall 2015/spring 2016 and a runner-up finish last fall. He also had a pair of top-10s in 2013's races.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Martin Truex Jr.: Would have won 12 segments if in place in 2016

NASCAR did not award segment points in 2016, but if they had there would have been a clear cut winner: Martin Truex Jr. would have earned 355 points and taken home 12 segment wins.

There were several races in which Truex was dominant. This new points’ structure would reward that. He would have swept both segments at Kansas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway in May, as well as New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the fall. Truex would have earned points in 51 segments, but he lost some of his momentum near the end.

Truex Jr. had the 10th-best average finish in 2016 with a 13.89.

WINNER AT DOVER

Truex's victory at Dover International Speedway last fall was only his second top-five there, but he has been consistent enough to make this his best track in terms of three-year averages with a 6.7.

44 IN THE T10 COLUMN

Truex Jr. has recorded 44 top-10s in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in the past three years, which puts him 12th on the leaderboard, (behind the inactive Jeff Gordon in 11th). In this same period, he has 17 top-fives and five victories.

Jimmie Johnson: Stating the stats, and one what if scenario

Jimmie Johnson won the Ford EcoBoost 400 and with it the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup championship to tie him for the most all time with legends Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt Sr. at seven each.

Johnson won the 2016 Chase, but he has only the sixth-most top-10s in the past three years with 58 such results.

Johnson recorded an average finish of 13.97 in 2016, which was only 11th-best in the field.

THE TEXAS 7.2

Johnson has an average finish of 7.2 in the last six races at Texas Motor Speedway, which is the second-best mark on that track among fulltime active drivers with more than two starts.

Johnson's average is only half the story. He won three consecutive races in 2014/2015 and finished fourth last spring. Last fall, he finished 11th and that means that he has been much stronger than his 7.2 suggests.

9.83 IS NO. 2

With a 9.83, Johnson has the second-best average finish at Bristol Motor Speedway during the past three years.

ATLANTA AND TEXAS THE BEST

Jimmie Johnson’s best three-year average finishes have come at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway, a pair of similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks.

SEGMENTS: WHAT IF?

If NASCAR had awarded segment points in 2016 at the one-quarter and halfway marks, Jimmie Johnson would have earned the fifth-most of 287.