By DraftKings / NASCAR.com
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings' NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)
Drivers 1-5
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
1.
|
Brad Keselowski
|
$10,500
|
|
2.
|
Joey Logano
|
$10,700
|
|
3.
|
Denny Hamlin
|
$10,200
|
|
4.
|
Kurt Busch
|
$8,000
|
|
5.
|
Kevin Harvick
|
$9,300
|
1. Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – Last year, Keselowski won at both restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega). This year, he wrecked at Daytona. That pretty much sums up plate racing. (6.2 fppk)
2. Joey Logano ($10,700) – Team Penske has won five of the last nine plate races. Logano owns three of those wins. In seven of those races, he finished 11th or better. (5.6 fppk)
3. Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – When Junior retires, Hamlin will be nominated to be President of Plate Racing. With only two wins, he likely won't be elected. However, his eight top 10s in the last 13 plate races makes a compelling argument. (3.2 fppk)
4. Kurt Busch ($8,000) – This season has been a disaster other than Kurt's Daytona 500 win. Returning to a restrictor plate track may be just what he needs. Kurt has nine top 15 finishes in his last 10 plate races. (2.5 fppk)
5. Kevin Harvick ($9,300) – It's been seven years since Harvick has won a plate race. It probably won't happen this week, but a top 15 finish is highly likely. Harvick has eight top 15 finishes in the last 10 plate races. (4.5 fppk)
Drivers 6-10
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
6.
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
|
$9,400
|
|
7.
|
Kyle Busch
|
$9,600
|
|
8.
|
Austin Dillon
|
$7,700
|
|
9.
|
Jimmie Johnson
|
$9,700
|
|
10.
|
Chase Elliott
|
$9,200
|
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,400) – In 2015, Junior was a plate race lock. He was a part of winning GPP lineups at Daytona and Talladega. In 2016, he absolutely hurt lineups by finishing 21st, 40th and 36th. In 2017, he has continued his ravenous ways. (1.8 fppk)
7. Kyle Busch ($9,600) – Don't try to figure it out. Kyle Busch finished 30th and 38th in his last two plate races. In the three plate races prior to his funk, he finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Wrecks happen at restrictor-plate tracks. (4.4 fppk)
8. Austin Dillon ($7,700) – He's one of the most consistent restrictor-plate racers in NASCAR. By his standards, his 19th place finish in the 2017 Daytona 500 was disappointing. As a full-time Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver, Dillon has 11 top 15s in 13 plate races. (3.6 fppk)
9. Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – The only thing that sets drivers apart this week is experience. Johnson has been running Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series plate races since 2002. He hasn't earned a top 15 finish since 2015, but he had three top 5s that season. (5.1 fppk)
10. Chase Elliott ($9,200) – The 24 car was always a threat at plate tracks, and that hasn't changed with Elliott behind the wheel. In his five plate races, Elliott has won three poles. He obviously has the car, but he hasn't quite mastered the skill of plate racing if there is such a thing. (5.3 fppk)
Drivers 11-15
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
11.
|
Martin Truex Jr.
|
$9,900
|
|
12.
|
Kyle Larson
|
$9,000
|
|
13.
|
Trevor Bayne
|
$7,100
|
|
14.
|
Aric Almirola
|
$7,000
|
|
15
|
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
|
$7,200
|
11. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,900) – In 2015, Truex put up monster fantasy points by driving through the field at plate tracks. In 2016, he lost the Daytona 500 by a foot but closed the season with a wreck and an engine failure in plate races. (6.5 fppk)
12. Kyle Larson ($9,000) – This is not a Kyle Larson type of race. In his first two seasons, he finished outside of the top 20 in six of eight chances. Last year, he figured something out, or maybe he just didn’t wreck (three top 10's and a 12th place finish at this year's Daytona 500). (6.4 fppk)
13. Trevor Bayne ($7,100) – His Daytona 500 win feels like a lifetime ago (2011), but it doesn't appear to be a fluke. Bayne has experienced recent success at restrictor plate tracks. He has three top 10 finishes in the last four plate races. (5.4 fppk)
14. Aric Almirola ($7,000) – Richard Petty Motorsports downsized this season. The move to a one car team has paid off. Almirola hasn't had a great year, but he's been pretty good. At the plate tracks, he’s been pretty good with seven top 20 finishes in his last nine plate races. (5.4 fppk)
15. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,200) – Over the last two seasons, Bristol and Talladega were the only tracks that you could trust Ricky. If you combine his knack for surviving Talladega and his current momentum, he's a real threat to win this race. (4.7 fppk)
Drivers 16-20
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
16.
|
Clint Bowyer
|
$8,200
|
|
17.
|
Ryan Blaney
|
$8,700
|
|
18.
|
Matt Kenseth
|
$9,100
|
|
19.
|
AJ Allmendinger
|
$6,800
|
|
20.
|
Cole Whitt
|
$5,200
|
16. Clint Bowyer ($8,200) – The last season where Bowyer had a competitive car, he earned three top 10s at plate tracks. At the Daytona 500 in February, Bowyer finished 32nd. Looks like it's top 10s from here on out. (4.1 fppk)
17. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – He didn't win the Daytona 500, but he won a DraftKings player a lot of money that weekend. Blaney scored the most fantasy points by driving from 36th to 2nd. The Wood Brothers' car is legendary at plate tracks. (3.6 fppk)
18. Matt Kenseth ($9,100) – You can't ignore the fact that Kenseth has teammates. At plate tracks, teammates help each other by blocking and pushing. You also can't ignore the fact that Kenseth has only one top 20 finish at plate tracks in the last three seasons. (2.8 fppk)
19. AJ Allmendinger ($6,800) – At the end of the day, daily fantasy NASCAR players are looking for drivers that will finish the race. Allmendinger has finished on the last lap in nine of the last 10 plate races. (4.0 fppk)
20. Cole Whitt ($5,200) – This is a week where DFS players pick underfunded, small team drivers that start in the back. These drivers, if they avoid the wrecks, can sneak away with a top 10 and bag full of place differential points. Whitt has a top 20 finish in each of his last three plate races. (4.4 fppk)
By DraftKings / NASCAR.com
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings' NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)
Drivers 1-5
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
1.
|
Kevin Harvick
|
$10,400
|
|
2.
|
Kyle Busch
|
$10,600
|
|
3.
|
Chase Elliott
|
$9,400
|
|
4.
|
Joey Logano
|
$10,000
|
|
5.
|
Kyle Larson
|
$10,100
|
1. Kevin Harvick ($10,400) – Late last summer, Bristol doctored its track to make the low racing line work. Kevin Harvick loved it. Of course he did, he won the August race. Low line or not, Harvick is a point hog at Bristol. He's averaging 82 fantasy points per race over the five races. (4.2 fppk)
2. Kyle Busch ($10,600) – There is a love/hate relationship between Rowdy and Bristol. Busch has not won at Bristol since it has gone through continuous major changes. DFS players do not care about wins. In two of the last three Bristol races, Busch has scored over 80 fast lap/laps led points. (5.4 fppk)
3. Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Every track they throw at him, he masters. Last year at Bristol, Elliott finished fourth and 15th. In the six races since the Daytona 500, Elliott has finished with a top-five fantasy score in all of them. (6.1 fppk)
4. Joey Logano ($10,000) – At Phoenix, Logano was banking fantasy points until a penalty and a subsequent wreck while mired in traffic. At the other races (excluding Daytona), Logano has finished sixth or better. Logano is right there on the verge of having a giant fantasy performance. (5.2 fppk)
5. Kyle Larson ($10,100) – The 42 car was not the best ride at Martinsville, so they moved on. The next week at Texas, Larson cruised to his fourth second-place finish this season. At Bristol, Kyle Larson’s aggressive style allows him to score fast lap points from anywhere in the field. (6.1 fppk)
Drivers 6-10
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
6.
|
Brad Keselowski
|
$10,300
|
|
7.
|
Martin Truex Jr.
|
$9,500
|
|
8.
|
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
|
$7,100
|
|
9.
|
Jimmie Johnson
|
$9,700
|
|
10.
|
Ryan Blaney
|
$8,200 |
6. Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – Based on a return on investment, Keselowski has been the second-best fantasy NASCAR driver this season. He's just a smidge below Truex. It could dip a little this week, though. After back-to-back wins at Bristol in 2011-12, BK only has three top-10s between 2012-16. (6.2 fppk)
7. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – The 78 car is a monster at tracks that are a mile and a half or longer. That statement leads fantasy NASCAR players to believe he struggles at short tracks. That's not the case. Look at it this way: At long tracks, he's platinum. At short tracks, he's gold. (6.3 fppk)
8. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) – Since the inception of the DraftKings NASCAR rankings, Stenhouse has been lauded as a great pick at Bristol. He has yet to let the rankings down. He's finished sixth or better in four of the last six races at Bristol, and his worst finish is 21st at a track notorious for wrecks. (4.1 fppk)
9. Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – The only lap that matter is the last lap, and no one knows that better than Jimmie Johnson. He won the Texas race, but only led the fifth-most laps. He doesn't consistently pile up fantasy points, but when he starts in the 20s, he's a no-brainer. (4.6 fppk)
10. Ryan Blaney ($8,200) – Time to eat crow. Blaney is still the king of negative place differential points, but at Texas, he proved himself to be a lap leader. This could be another good week for Blaney. Last year, his average running positions were 15th and 10th at Bristol. (5.3 fppk)
Drivers 11-15
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
11.
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
|
$8,600
|
|
12.
|
Kurt Busch
|
$7,700
|
|
13.
|
Jamie McMurray
|
$8,000
|
|
14.
|
Denny Hamlin
|
$8,800
|
|
15
|
Erik Jones
|
$7,800 |
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,600) – If you look at the record books, then you'll be impressed by Junior's average finish of 13th (third best). Actually, he has the best average finish among drivers with 10 or more races. Debbie Downer time: Those stats are from his early in his career. (2.6 fppk)
12. Kurt Busch ($7,700) – The good news is that Kurt finished a race, and in 10th place. The typical Kurt Busch top-10 is fine if he does it every week. This year he's too volatile and lacks upside. He has a low fantasy point ceiling and very low floor. (2.3 fppk)
13. Jamie McMurray ($8,000) – Chip Ganassi Racing figured something out. The 42 and 1 car are fast. Jamie Mac has four top-10s in the last six races this season. In the last 10 Bristol races, he has nine top-20s. That's impressive at this chaotic bullring. (2.5 fppk)
14. Denny Hamlin ($8,800) – Flip the switch in your DFS brain. It's a short track, so Hamlin is back in play. Now, turn the knob on the volatility setting to the maximum. In the last 10 Bristol races, Hamlin has four finishes of sixth or better, and six finishes of 20th or worse. (2.0 fppk)
15. Erik Jones ($7,800) – Dare we dive into the Xfinity series stats? In four lower level races at Bristol, Jones scored three poles, three top-10s and a win. He's been a top-15 driver every week this year. There is no reason for that to change this week unless he's caught in a wreck. (4.1 fppk)
Drivers 16-20
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
16.
|
Ryan Newman
|
$7,500
|
|
17.
|
Clint Bowyer
|
$8,400
|
|
18.
|
Matt Kenseth
|
$9,100
|
|
19.
|
Austin Dillon
|
$7,300
|
|
20.
|
Landon Cassill
|
|
16. Ryan Newman ($7,500) – Bristol will take out the best drivers and not think twice. Not that Newman isn't a good driver, but he submits to the universe. He's glad to take his top-15 and shuffle on down the road. DFS players should be glad to take a top-15 driver and get to shuffling. (3.0 fppk)
17. Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – One of his few bright spots in 2016 was Bowyer's eighth-place finish in the spring Bristol race. How did he achieve this with inferior equipment? It's simple, he didn't wreck. Bowyer may not be the car out front, but at the end, he could be swimming in the top-five. (4.0 fppk)
18. Matt Kenseth ($9,100) – In the last three Bristol races, Kenseth has suffered a mechanical failure or wrecked. It can't happen four times in a row. That was probably said before the third Bristol wreck last August. (1.5 fppk)
19. Austin Dillon ($7,300) – This has clearly been the worst season of Austin Dillon's career. That's not just Monster Energy Series; that's every level of racing. Dillon is skilled enough, the car is fast enough, and he's cheap enough. He has four top-15s in six Bristol races. (3.0 fppk)
20. Landon Cassill ($5,300) – A punt enters the rankings. First of all, this race can see a lot of good cars wreck. Why not save some salary? Last year, in his first season with Front Row Motorsports, Cassill finished 20th and 22nd at Bristol. (3.5 fppk)
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings' NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the 3s. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.)
Drivers 1-5
| Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
| 1.
|
Kevin Harvick
|
$11,100
|
| 2.
|
Joey Logano
|
$10,500
|
| 3.
|
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
|
$8,500
|
| 4.
|
Jimmie Johnson
|
$9,000
|
| 5.
|
Kyle Busch
|
$10,100
|
1. Kevin Harvick ($11,100): If Phoenix Raceway was its own country, then Kevin Harvick would be its king (or president, if they decided to be a democracy). Harvick has scored more than 100 fantasy points in six of the last seven Phoenix races. (4.5 fppk)
2. Joey Logano ($10,500): In the last seven Phoenix races, he has six top 10s. If not for a fueling mistake, it would be a perfect seven for seven. Logano earned a top 10 on the fantasy points leaderboard in five of those seven races (the exceptions being the fueling issue race and a 12th-place score). (5.2 fppk)
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,500): Only one car has dared to step in the way of Kevin Harvick's domination at Phoneix: The 88. Junior won at Phoenix in the fall 2015 race and Alex Bowman scored 110 fantasy points in the fall 2016 race. (0.8 fppk)
4. Jimmie Johnson ($9,000): Before Kevin Harvick at Phoenix, there was Jimmie Johnson at Phoenix (five wins between 2007-2009). Don't write him off. Last fall, Johnson scored 22.5 fast lap points at Phoenix. (2.8 fppk)
5. Kyle Busch ($10,100): The box scores say Kyle Busch has been terrible, and so do the fantasy results. Even after two wrecks and a poorly handled car at Atlanta, it's not the time to jump ship. Busch can bounce back at Phoenix. He's scored top-10 fantasy points in the last three Phoenix races. (0.7 fppk)
Drivers 6-10
| Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
| 6.
|
Brad Keselowski
|
$10,300
|
| 7.
|
Kyle Larson
|
$9,100
|
| 8.
|
Matt Kenseth
|
$8,800
|
| 9.
|
Denny Hamlin
|
$9,200
|
| 10.
|
Chase Elliott
|
$9,700
|
6. Brad Keselowski ($10,300): If you had to pick the best driver so far, it's without a doubt Brad Keselowski. How is he at Phoenix? Last year was an off year: a top 10 and a wreck. Before that, he was 11th or better in eight consecutive Phoenix races. (5.3 fppk)
7. Kyle Larson ($9,100): The best average finish this season belongs to Kyle Larson (fifth). He finished third last fall at Phoenix. A week later, he almost won at Homestead, and then he almost won at Daytona. He's finished second at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This might be his year. (5.4 fppk)
8. Matt Kenseth ($8,800): Last fall, Kenseth did not crack the top 10 in any of the practices. Are we talking about practice? He was leading the race during an overtime restart, but he wrecked. He scored 13 fast lap points and 13.75 laps led points. Practice doesn't mean everything. (2.3 fppk)
9. Denny Hamlin ($9,200): Goodbye, intermediate tracks. Hello, short tracks. This is Hamlin's wheelhouse. At the short, flat tracks in 2016, Hamlin's average finish was fifth (that's not including a very rare wheel hop wreck at Martinsville). (1.7 fppk)
10. Chase Elliott ($9,700): His Las Vegas practice speeds were appealing, but Keselowski and Truex looked good, too. They also had the benefit of starting on the front row. Elliott is a top-10 driver, but he's not elite. (5.0 fppk)
Drivers 11-15
| Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
| 11.
|
Kurt Busch
|
$8,700
|
| 12.
|
Martin Truex Jr.
|
$9,400
|
| 13.
|
Paul Menard
|
$6,200
|
| 14.
|
Ryan Blaney
|
$8,000
|
| 15
|
Aric Almirola
|
$6,900
|
11. Kurt Busch ($8,700): The one thing Kurt has going for him is that he's a safe top-10 pick. So much for that 30th at Las Vegas. Everything should return to normal this week. Kurt has a top-10 finish in each of the last five Phoenix races. (3.8 fppk)
12. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,400): This car is fast, but this is not a Truex track. The 78 car was great everywhere last year, but not in the desert. Truex has one top five in 22 Phoenix races. (7.5 fppk)
13. Paul Menard ($6,200): A top-15 starting position will almost always push me off of Menard. That's my rule. His Phoenix stats are not as impressive as his Las Vegas stats, but he's been a top-15 driver in three of the last four Phoenix races. (4.8 fppk)
14. Ryan Blaney ($8,000): This is a good time to be a Penske satellite operation. Out of the gate, these Fords have the best setup for the 2017 low downforce package. If not for a tire issue in Atlanta, Blaney would have three tops 10s. At Phoenix, he posted two top 10s in 2016. (6.8 fppk)
15. Aric Almirola ($6,900): Late-race restarts make or break fantasy teams. Almirola was having a decent day (average running position of 20th), but after a late-race caution, Almirola finished 14th. Almirola has a top-20 finish in nine of the last 10 Phoenix races. (6.0 fppk)
Drivers 16-20
|
Rank
|
Driver
|
Salary
|
|
16.
|
Clint Bowyer
|
$7,700
|
|
17.
|
Erik Jones
|
$7,500
|
|
18.
|
Ryan Newman
|
$8,200
|
|
19.
|
AJ Allmendinger
|
$7,000
|
|
20.
|
Kasey Kahne
|
$8,100
|
16. Clint Bowyer ($7,700): With his price tag hovering above $8,000, Bowyer is only a strong play for me if he qualifies 15th or worse. He's a new man and a top-15 driver, again. He's not a top-tier lap leader yet. (3.0 fppk)
17. Erik Jones ($7,500): In the last two races, Jones has raced better than he's finished. His average running position was 11th at Atlanta (14th-place finish) and 10th at Las Vegas (15th-place finish). It's disappointing for the Furniture Row Racing rookie, but that's still pretty good for a young driver. (2.9 fppk)
18. Ryan Newman ($8,200): In the last 15 Phoenix races, Newman has 11 top-15 finishes. He bounced back from the battery debacle in Atlanta with a 17th-place finish in Las Vegas (average running position of 12th). (1.2 fppk)
19. AJ Allmendinger ($7,000): The theory is that Allmendinger's road racing background has led to his success at short flat tracks (the turns are similar). In 15 Phoenix races, Allmendinger has 12 top 20s. He finished second and 10th at Martinsville last season (short, flat track). (5.6 fppk)
20. Kasey Kahne ($8,100): Las Vegas was a better representation of the real Kasey Kahne (12th-place finish and -5 place differential points). There was a lot of good fortune involved in his fourth-place Atlanta finish. (6.5 fppk)
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