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Thursday, November 16, 2017

Statistical Advance: Analyzing the Ford EcoBoost 400

DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA – Below is a look at the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida going into the Ford EcoBoost 400 on November 19 at 3 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Channel 90).
CHAMPIONSHIP 4
Rank
Driver
Points
Leader
Next
Race Wins
Stage Wins
1
Kevin Harvick
5,000
0
0
2
6
2
Kyle Busch
5,000
0
0
5
14
3
Martin Truex Jr.
5,000
0
0
7
19
4
Brad Keselowski
5,000
0
0
3
8
5
Chase Elliott
2,338
-2662
-2662
0
3
6
Denny Hamlin
2,321
-2679
-17
2
4
7
Matt Kenseth
2,311
-2689
-10
1
3
8
Ryan Blaney
2,297
-2703
-14
1
4
9
Kyle Larson
2,266
-2734
-31
4
6
10
Jimmie Johnson
2,250
-2750
-16
3
1
11
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2,200
-2800
-50
2
0
12
Jamie McMurray
2,200
-2800
0
0
0
13
Austin Dillon
2,198
-2,802
-2
1
0
14
Kasey Kahne
2,194
-2,806
-4
1
0
15
Kurt Busch
2,193
-2,807
-1
1
0
16
Ryan Newman
2,169
-2,831
-24
1
0


HOMESTEAD-MIAMI-SPECIFIC STATISTICS




*Playoff drivers are in Alphabetical Order; Loop Data (2005-2017)

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
·        Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.9

2017 Rundown
·        Five wins, 13 top fives, 21 top 10s,
·        Led 1980 laps
·        Average Finish of 11.8

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
·        One win, two top fives, five top 10s
·        Average finish of 19.833, 17th-best
·        Average Running Position of 14.003, 10th-best
·        Driver Rating of 96.9, sixth-best
·        194 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
·        Average Green Flag Speed of 161.654, seventh-fastest
·        2215 Laps in the Top 15 (69.1), seventh-most
·        483 Quality Passes, seventh-most


Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford)
·        Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 106.0

2017 Rundown
·        Two wins, 13 top fives, 22 top 10s,
·        Led 850 laps
·        Average Finish of 11.3

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
·        One win, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
·        Average finish of 6.000, series-best
·        Average Running Position of 8.928, third-best
·        Driver Rating of 106.0, second-best
·        154 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
·        Average Green Flag Speed of 161.753, fourth-fastest
·        2605 Laps in the Top 15 (81.3), fourth-most
·        508 Quality Passes, fifth-most



Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford)
·        Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 88.5

2017 Rundown
·        Three wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s,
·        Led 777 laps
·        Average Finish of 12.6

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
·        Two top fives, three top 10s
·        Average finish of 15.889, 11th-best
·        Average Running Position of 13.782, ninth-best
·        Driver Rating of 88.5, ninth-best
·        62 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
·        Average Green Flag Speed of 161.422, ninth-fastest
·        1533 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8), 10th-most
·        354 Quality Passes, 12th-most


Martin Truex Jr (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota)
·        Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 101.8

2017 Rundown
·        Seven wins, 18 top fives, 25 top 10s,
·        Led 2175 laps
·        Average Finish of 9.7

Homestead-Miami Speedway Outlook:
·        Three top fives, seven top 10s
·        Average finish of 10.545, fourth-best
·        Average Running Position of 9.638, fourth-best
·        Driver Rating of 101.8, third-best
·        174 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
·        Average Green Flag Speed of 161.706, fifth-fastest
·        2427 Laps in the Top 15 (82.6), third-most
·        640 Quality Passes, series-most

Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Fast Facts: Homestead-Miami
·        Homestead-Miami Speedway has participated in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs as the season finale since its inception in 2004. This season the track will host its 14th Playoff event.  
·       Eight tracks have hosted Playoff races all 13 previous years – New Hampshire, Dover, Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega, Martinsville, Phoenix and Homestead-Miami.
Homestead Playoff Race Winners

Winners
Playoff Wins
Greg Biffle
3
Carl Edwards
2
Denny Hamlin
2
Jeff Gordon
1
Jimmie Johnson
1
Kevin Harvick
1
Kyle Busch
1
Matt Kenseth
1
Tony Stewart
1

·        Nine different drivers have won the Homestead-Miami Speedway Playoff races, led by Greg Biffle with three victories (2004 – 2006).
·        Four times the winner of the Homestead-Miami Speedway Playoff race has gone on to win the championship during the Playoff era (2004-Present):
o   In 2011, Tony Stewart won from the 15th starting position at Homestead, and as a result secured his third-career MENCS championship.
o   In 2014, Kevin Harvick won from the fifth starting position at Homestead in the first year of the Elimination-Style format of the Playoffs, and as a result won his first MENCS title.   
o   In 2015, Kyle Busch won from the third starting position at Homestead in the second year of the Elimination-Style format of the Playoffs, and as a result won his first MENCS championship.  
o   In 2016, Jimmie Johnson won from the 14th starting position at Homestead in the third year of the Elimination-Style format of the Playoffs, and as a result he tied NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the series-most titles with seven.  
·        The worst finish in a Playoff race by the eventual series champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway is 15th (three times), Tony Stewart in 2005, Jimmie Johnson in 2008 and Brad Keselowski in 2012. 
·        Playoff contenders have won 10 of the 13 (75%) previous Playoff races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Two non-Playoff drivers have won the Homestead-Miami Playoff race: Greg Biffle (2004 and 2006) and Denny Hamlin (2013).      
·        Roush Fenway Racing leads the series in Playoff race wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with six, including five consecutive: Greg Biffle (2004 – 2006), Matt Kenseth (2007) and Carl Edwards (2008).    
·        Three manufacturers have won the Playoff race at Homestead, led by Ford with six; followed by Chevrolet with four and Toyota with three.  
·        The most dominant performance by a Playoff race winner at Homestead-Miami Speedway was Carl Edward’s victory in 2010. He posted a Perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 and led 190 of the 267 laps (71.1% of his laps completed) – the most by a Playoff race winner at Homestead.
·        Championship 4 Performances at Homestead-Miami Speedway:
2014 Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Driver
Start
Finish
Laps Led
Laps Comp
Driver Rating
Finishing Type
Pts Pos
Crew Chief
Organization
Kevin Harvick
5
1
54
267
132.7
Running
1
Rodney Childers
Stewart-Haas Racing
Ryan Newman
21
2
0
267
108.2
Running
2
Lucas Lambert
Richard Childress Racing
Denny Hamlin
8
7
50
267
118.7
Running
3
Darian Grubb
Joe Gibbs Racing
Joey Logano
9
16
0
267
105.1
Running
4
Todd Gordon
Team Penske
                   
2015 Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Driver
Start
Finish
Laps Led
Laps Comp
Driver Rating
Finishing Type
Pts Pos
Crew Chief
Organization
Kyle Busch
3
1
41
267
136.0
Running
1
Adam Stevens
Joe Gibbs Racing
Kevin Harvick
13
2
46
267
122.1
Running
2
Rodney Childers
Stewart-Haas Racing
Jeff Gordon
5
6
9
267
99.6
Running
3
Alan Gustafson
Hendrick Motorsports
Martin Truex Jr
11
12
3
267
90.5
Running
4
Cole Pearn
Furniture Row Racing
                   
2016 Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Driver
Start
Finish
Laps Led
Laps Comp
Driver Rating
Finishing Type
Pts Pos
Crew Chief
Organization
Jimmie Johnson
14
1
3
268
109.9
Running
1
Chad Knaus
Hendrick Motorsports
Joey Logano
13
4
6
268
114.6
Running
2
Todd Gordon
Team Penske
Kyle Busch
9
6
1
268
112.1
Running
3
Adam Stevens
Joe Gibbs Racing
Carl Edwards
10
34
47
257
110.1
Accident
4
Dave Rogers
Joe Gibbs Racing


2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Championship 4 At Homestead-Miami
Rank
Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating
 
 
1
Kevin Harvick
16
1
1
8
14
0
6.9
106
 
2
Kyle Busch
12
0
1
2
5
2
19.8
96.9
 
3
Martin Truex Jr
12
0
0
3
7
2
12.3
101.8
 
4
Brad Keselowski
9
0
0
2
3
1
15.9
88.5
 
* – Based on last 12 races at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2005 – 2016).


Homestead-Miami Speedway Data
Season Race #: 36 of 36 (11-19-17)
Playoff Race #: 10
Track Size: 1.5-mile
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 18-20 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 18-20 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 4 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 4 degrees
Frontstretch Length:  1,760 feet
Backstretch Length:  1,760 feet
Race Length: 267 laps / 400.5 miles
Stages 1 & 2 Length: 80 Laps (each)
Finale Stage Length: 107 Laps
   
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Homestead
Matt Kenseth............................ 107.7
Kevin Harvick........................... 106.6
Martin Truex Jr......................... 101.8
Kyle Larson.............................. 101.6
Jimmie Johnson.......................... 97.8
Kyle Busch................................. 96.9
Denny Hamlin............................. 95.8
Chase Elliott............................... 95.5
Brad Keselowski......................... 88.5
Joey Logano............................... 87.4
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (12 total) among active drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data
2016 pole winner:
Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet
177.637 mph, 30.399 secs. 11-18-16

2016 race winner:
Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet
128.869 mph, (03:07:10), 11-18-16

Track qualifying record:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
181.238 mph, 29.795 secs. 11-14-14
Set in Round 1 of 3

Track race record:
Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet
142.245 mph, (2:48:56), 11-18-12

Homestead-Miami Speedway:
History
·        Groundbreaking for Homestead-Miami Dade Motorsports Complex – as the track was originally named – began Aug. 24, 1993.
·        The first race held at Homestead-Miami Speedway was a NASCAR XFINITY Series event on Nov. 5, 1995 – won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jarrett.
·        The original configuration was a four-turn, rectangular oval based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway's layout.
·        The first Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami was held on Nov. 14, 1999 – won by Tony Stewart (Pontiac).
·        2002 was the first season the Championship Weekend was held at Homestead, with all three of NASCAR’s national series holding their season finale at the same track.
·        Since the inception of the position-based points system in 1975, only four drivers have made up a points deficit in the season finale: Richard Petty in 1979 (made up two points on Darrell Waltrip), Alan Kulwicki in 1992 (made up 30 points on Davey Allison), Jimmie Johnson in 2010 (made up 15 points on Denny Hamlin) and Tony Stewart in 2011 (made up three points on Carl Edwards).
·        There have been 18 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one per season since 1999.

Starts
·        129 drivers have competed in at least one Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway; 101 have competed in more than one.
·        Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart lead the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 17 each.
·        Brad Keselowski (nine starts) leads the series in average starting position with a 11.333.   


Poles 
·        A total of 14 different drivers have won a Coors Light Pole Award at Homestead-Miami Speedway, led by Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne with two each.
·        David Green won the first Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Coors Light pole at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 1999 at a speed of 155.759 mph (34.669 sec.) in a Pontiac.
·        Youngest Homestead-Miami pole winner: Joey Logano (11/18/2012 – 22 years, 5 months, 25 days).
·        Oldest Homestead-Miami pole winner: Bill Elliott (11/11/2001 – 46 years, 1 month, 3 days).
·        Jamie McMurray (November, 2003) and David Reutimann (November, 2008) won their first series career Coors Light poles at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Wins
·        There have been 12 different Monster Energy NASCAR Series race winners at Homestead-Miami Speedway; with four of the 12 having multiple wins.  
·        Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart lead the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series in wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three wins each; followed by Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin with two each.
·        Of the four drivers with multiple wins at Homestead, Tony Stewart is the only driver to win in two different manufacturers: Pontiac (1999, 2000) and Chevrolet (2011).
·        Two drivers have won consecutive races at Homestead-Miami: Tony Stewart (1999 - 2000) and Greg Biffle (2004 – 2006, three straight).
·        Youngest Homestead winner: Kurt Busch (11/17/2002 – 24 years, 3 months, 13 days).
·        Oldest Homestead winner: Bill Elliott (11/11/2001 – 46 years, 1 month, 3 days).
·        Roush Fenway Racing leads the series in wins at Homestead-Miami with seven, followed by Joe Gibbs Racing with six.
·        Two of the 18 (11.1%) Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway have been won from the Coors Light pole: Bill Elliott (2001) and Kurt Busch (2002).
·        Five of the 18 (27.8%) Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami have been won from the front row: two from the pole and three from second starting position.
·        12 of the 18 (66.7%) Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami have been won from a starting position inside the top 10 – most recently – Kyle Busch (third starting position; 2015).
·        Six of the 18 (33.3%) Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami have been won from a starting position outside the top 10 – most recently – Jimmie Johnson (14th starting position; 2016).
·        Denny Hamlin won the 2009 race from the 38th-place starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started at HMS.
·        Tony Stewart (1999) is the only driver to win at Homestead-Miami in his first appearance.


Additional Finishing Positions
·        A total of 15 different MENCS drivers have finished runner-up at Homestead-Miami Speedway, led by Kevin Harvick with three second-place finishes; followed by Jimmie Johnson with two. 
·        A total of 35 different MENCS drivers have finished in the top-five at Homestead-Miami, led by Kevin Harvick with eight top fives; followed by Jeff Gordon (seven), Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson (with five each).
·        A total of 52 different MENCS drivers have finished in the top-10 at Homestead-Miami, led by Kevin Harvick with 14 top 10s; followed by Jeff Gordon (13), and Jimmie Johnson (11).
·        Kevin Harvick leads the series in average finish position at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 6.938

Track / Event Specific Stats
·      Since the advent of electronic scoring the closest margin of victory in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami Speedway is the November 20, 2005 race won by Greg Biffle with a MOV of 0.017 seconds over second-place Mark Martin.
·        All-time top five MENCS lap leaders at Homestead-Miami Speedway:
Drivers
Laps Led
Laps Completed
% of Laps Led
Carl Edwards
615
3,462
17.8%
Tony Stewart
450
4,452
10.1%
Matt Kenseth
449
4,256
10.5%
Kevin Harvick
315
4,277
7.4%
Kyle Busch
279
2,943
9.5%
·        Qualifying has never been cancelled due to weather conditions at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  
·        None of the 18 series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway have been shortened due to weather.
·        Three of the 18 series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway have ended under NASCAR Overtime:
Date
Scheduled No. Of Laps
Actual No. Of Laps
NASCAR Overtime
Winner
Runner-Up
11/20/2016
267
268
1
Jimmie Johnson
Kyle Larson
11/19/2006
267
268
1
Greg Biffle
Martin Truex Jr
11/21/2004
267
271
4
Greg Biffle
Jimmie Johnson

Female Competitors
·        Danica Patrick became the first and only female driver to compete in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  
Date
Driver
Starting Position
Finishing Position
Driver Rating
11/20/2016
Danica Patrick
30
19
47.7
11/22/2015
Danica Patrick
35
24
64.7
11/16/2014
Danica Patrick
32
18
67.7
11/17/2013
Danica Patrick
24
20
61.4
AVERAGES
30.3
20.3
60.4




NASCAR in Florida
·        There have been 373 NASCAR national series races among 10 tracks in the state of Florida.
Track Name
City
MENCS
NXS
NCWTS
Total Races
Daytona International Speedway
Daytona Beach
141
52
18
274
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Homestead
18
22
21
67
Daytona Beach & Road Course
Daytona Beach
10
0
0
10
Palm Beach Speedway
W. Palm Beach
7
0
0
7
Speedway Park
Jacksonville
6
0
0
6
Volusia County Speedway
Barberville
0
4
0
4
Walt Disney World Speedway
Orlando
0
0
2
2
Five Flags Speedway
Pensacola
1
0
0
1
Golden Gate Speedway
Tampa
1
0
0
1
Titusville-Cocoa Speedway
Titusville
1
0
0
1
Totals

185
78
41
373

·        The first NASCAR national series race held in the state of Florida was on July 10, 1949 at the Daytona Beach & Road Course in Daytona Beach, Florida – the event was won by Red Byron (Oldsmobile).

Florida Drivers in NASCAR
·        181 drivers that have made at least one start in a NASCAR national series race have their home state recorded as Florida.
·        There have been 11 NASCAR national series race winners from the state of Florida.
Driver
MENCS Wins
NXS Wins
NCWTS Wins
Totals
Fireball Roberts
33
0
0
33
LeeRoy Yarbrough
14
0
0
14
Marshall Teague
7
0
0
7
Joe Nemechek
4
16
0
20
Bobby Johns
2
0
0
2
David Reutimann
2
1
1
4
Aric Almirola
1
3
2
6
Shorty Rollins
1
0
0
1
Rick Wilson
0
2
0
2
Joey Coulter
0
0
1
1
Ben Kennedy
0
0
1
1
Totals
64
22
5
91



Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Milestones
Drivers
Has
Needs
Milestones
STARTS
Matt Kenseth
649
1
To become the 22nd driver in series history to start 650 or more races
WINS
Jimmie Johnson
83
1
Tie Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip (84) for fourth on MENCS wins list
Kyle Busch
43
1
Tie Bill Elliott (44) for 16th on all-time MENCS wins list
Matt Kenseth
39
1
Tie Mark Martin (39) for 18th on all-time MENCS wins list
Kevin Harvick
37
2
Tie Tim Flock (39) for 20th on MENCS all-time wins list
Denny Hamlin
31
1
Tie Dale Jarrett (32) for 24th on all-time MENCS wins list
Kurt Busch
29
1
Tie Denny Hamlin (30) for 25th on all-time MENCS wins list
Dale Earnhardt Jr
26
2
Tie Rex White (28) for 28th on all-time MENCS wins list
Brad Keselowski
24
1
Tie Joe Weatherly, Jim Paschal (25) for 31st on all-time MENCS wins list
POLES
Ryan Newman
51
3
Tie Bill Elliott for eighth on the all-time MENCS poles list
Jimmie Johnson
35
1
Tie Rusty Wallace and Rex White for 17th on all-time MENCS poles list
Kasey Kahne
27
2
Tie Ricky Rudd (29) for 24th on the all-time MENCS poles list
Kyle Busch
27
2
Tie Ricky Rudd (29) for 24th on the all-time MENCS poles list
ADDITIONAL FINISHING POSITIONS
Jimmie Johnson
46
2
Tie Lee Petty for 11th on all-time MENCS second-place finishes list
Matt Kenseth
181
1
Tie Terry Labonte for 18th on all-time MENCS top-five finishes list
Dale Earnhardt Jr
149
1
To become the 24th driver to post 150 or more MENCS top-five finishes
LAPS LED
Jimmie Johnson
18,663
337
To become the ninth driver in series history to lead 19,000 or more laps
Matt Kenseth
11,751
249
To become the 15th MENCS driver all-time to lead 12,000 or more laps
Kurt Busch
8,877
126
To become 20th MENCS driver all-time to lead 9,000 or more laps
Denny Hamlin
8,843
157
To become 20th MENCS driver all-time to lead 9,000 or more laps

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