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Thursday, June 15, 2017

Fantasy Sleepers and Value Picks – Michigan International Speedway (FireKeepers Casino 400)

Daniel Suarez currently has eight-consecutive Top-20
finishes
Sleepers:

Kurt Busch: For the second week-in-a-row, Kurt Busch makes our list because he recently has picked up steam and speed – making him a strong fantasy sleeper at Michigan. He has four top-eight or better finishes in his last six races and he ranks 18th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. Busch has been a #FantasyNASCAR-producing machine at Michigan as he has three wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s and 448 laps led. Since 2015, he has a place differential of +8.2.

Austin Dillon: It’s safe to say – AD is finally having the season we expected. He has three-consecutive top-13 or better finishes, including his win at Charlotte. He ranks ninth in fantasy points averaged over his last three races and looks to carry that into Michigan. Since 2015, Dillon has the ninth-best driver rating (90.3) among active drivers and owns an average finish of 12.0 in that span. Dillon has four-consecutive top-20 or better finishes at Michigan and has led 22 career laps there.

Erik Jones: Erik Jones is becoming a star right before our eyes. The Sunoco Rookie has had a terrific first season in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. As of late, Jones has three-consecutive top 15s – including a top-three finish at Pocono – his best finish of the season. He sits a flaming hot seventh in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. He’s decently affordable across most leagues for his close to dominate production. In one career NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Michigan, Jones placed fourth.

Daniel Suárez: Daniel Suárez is beginning to figure it out and right now, makes a case for a quality sleeper play from week-to-week. Suárez has eight-consecutive top-20 finishes and owns an average finish on the season of 15.9. He ranks 12th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races and his asking price makes him very appealing. Interesting note for Suárez at Michigan? It’s home to his first NASCAR national series victory. Suárez won at Michigan last season in the NASCAR XFINITY Series beating Kyle Busch.

Value Plays:

Chris Buescher: While his price varies in most leagues, if you can spare a little salary, Chris Buescher makes a strong value play. In eight of his last nine races, Buescher has had positive place differential of at least two or better. On the season, Buescher owns an average finish of 22.6, with an average place differential of +6.3. He currently ranks 15th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. In this event last season, Buescher started 22nd and finished 20th.

Darrell Wallace Jr.: In his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series debut at Pocono Raceway last week, Bubba Wallace struggled with some penalties and ended up finishing 26th after starting 16th. The positive is his room for improvement and his price remains low enough in most leagues to take a safe gamble on him as a value play. In two career NASCAR XFINITY Series races at Michigan, Wallace has finishes of ninth (2016) and 15th (2015). For comparison-sake, Aric Almirola finished top-25 or better in four or his last five races at Michigan.

Michael McDowell: Let’s revisit Michael McDowell’s last four finishes in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. Starting most recently: 24th (Pocono), 19th (Dover), 19th (Charlotte) and 13th (Kansas). That is value across the board given his asking price. McDowell ranks 24th in fantasy points averaged over his last three races. On the season, McDowell owns an average finish of 23.7, with an average place differential of +1.1. He makes a quality value play this week at Michigan.

David Ragan: David Ragan is on pace for value play of the 2017 season. In nine of his last 10 races, Ragan has had positive place differential of +3 or better. On the season, Ragan owns an average finish of 24.4., with an average place differential of +5.6. Across most leagues the value is equitable for his asking price. In 20 career starts at Michigan, Ragan has two top 10s and owns an average finish of 21.6, with an average place differential of +4.

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